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UFC Fight Night: Sadong vs. Simon Best Bets, Picks & Predictions (2023)

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Last week was a blistering start to this column. We ended up going 3-1-1 and were an early stoppage away from possibly having a huge day. For what it is worth Bruno Silva looked exceptional against Tavares but this is the fight game and anything can happen. As you saw, Wells was hurt numerous times and still was able to win by decision. We were able to hit two underdogs in Giagos (+135) and Pavlovich (+140), along with Pavlovich by KO (+175). That puts us at a record of (3-1-1) +2.2 units ML, (1-1-1) +.75 units props, and (0-2) on parlays -1 unit. We have another solid Fight Night card before UFC 288 so let’s dive in and find some value!!!

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success. We are going to look at numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics that will help us make our best bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of Distance Strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average. Higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is we are going to look at each fighter’s last three fights. This is more indicative of a fighter’s form and general ability than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

UFC Fight Night Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Caio Borralho (-345) vs Michael Oleksiejczuk (+285)

Caio Borralho

  • Dist Acc Off: 45.7%
  • Dist Att/Min: 5.50
  • Dist Def: 68%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 32 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 57.4%
  • Control % Def: 14.2%

Michal Oleksiejczuk

  • Dist Acc Off: 44.3 %
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.81
  • Dist Def: 64%
  • KD%: 2.8% (3 KDs out of 105 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 6.2%
  • Control % Def: 15.4%

This fight is pretty straightforward if Borralho gets this to the ground or clinch it is going to be a long night for Oleksiejczuk. Oleksiejczuk does have the chance to pour on volume and hope to overwhelm Borralho but that will open him up for takedowns and clinch opportunities. Borralho has dominated his last three opponents to decision victories and that is where I see this one going. -345 is a lot of juice to lay but it seems warranted in this case. Borralho +250 by decision is also in play.

Rodolfo Vieira (-230) vs Cody Brundage (+195)

Rodolfo Viera

  • Dist Acc: 39.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.92
  • Dist Def: 51%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 139 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 25.1%
  • Control % Def: 6.5%

Cody Brundage

  • Dist Acc: 36.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.50
  • Dist Def: 71%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 28 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 16.8%
  • Control % Def: 49.8%

This is another intriguing matchup. Anyone who is familiar with Rodolfo Viera understands that all he needs is one takedown to end a fight with his BJJ skills (17-time World Champion). The main issue is his cardio, if he struggles to get that takedown it will be a long night. Viera struggled against Chris Curtis who is known for his control defense and overall striking prowess. Brundage is not Chris Curtis and his 49.8% control defense is alarming. This fight will not play out on the feet for long and I see Viera getting it to the ground without issue. Rodolfo Viera -230 to win and -115 to win by submission can both be confidently played.

Cody Durden (+120) vs Charles Johnson (-140)

Cody Durden

  • Dist Acc: 43.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.07
  • Dist Def: 57%
  • KD%: 1.4% (1 KD out of 67 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 59.7%
  • Control % Def: 6%

Charles Johnson

  • Dist Acc: 50%
  • Dist Att/Min: 12.54
  • Dist Def: 58%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 165 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 11.2%
  • Control % Def: 12.5%

Yet again we have some glaring advantages for one fighter. Cody Durden boasts an extreme 59.7% offensive control over his last three fights. Charles Johnson has a respectable 12.5% defensive control but I don’t know if that’s going to be enough. Even if Durden splits the difference and controls 30% of the fight time, it could make all the difference. Neither of these fighters have extraordinary power and both fight at a similar pace. Johnson is more accurate but I don’t see him translating that accuracy into huge damage. Durden +120 has value considering he should dictate how this fight plays out.

Ricky Simon (-115) vs Song Yadong (-105)

Ricky Simon

  • Dist Acc: 46.3%
  • Dist Att/Min: 8.84
  • Dist Def: 70%
  • KD%: 3.5% (2 KDs out of 57 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 53.3%
  • Control % Def: 1.3%

Song Yadong

  • Dist Acc: 34.8%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.49
  • Dist Def: 66%
  • KD%: 2.3% (2 KDs out of 85 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 5.7%
  • Control % Def: 13.1%

Ricky Simon is one of the best grapplers in the entire UFC. He is constantly smothering his opponents and his 53.3% offensive control is evidence of that. He has also posted a 3.5 KD% which is not insignificant. Song Yadong is going to do his best to keep this fight standing but even on the feet, he is less accurate on a slight uptick in volume. Cardio should not be an issue for Simon and he will impose his will on this fight. Simon -115 to win and +215 to win by decision can both be bet with confidence.

The Bets

Moneyline Parlay

  • Leg 1: Rodolfo Vieira (-230)
  • Leg 2: Caio Borralho (-345)
  • Leg 3: Cody Durden (+120)
  • Leg 4: Ricky Simon (-115)

Parlay Odds: +661

You get four fighters who have direct paths to victory and have an offensive identity. A pretty standard payout for a solid parlay.

Props Parlay

  • Leg 1: Rodolfo Vieira by Submission (-115)
  • Leg 2: Caio Borralho by Decision (+250)
  • Leg 3: Ricky Simon by Decision (+215)

Parlay Odds: +1961

This is a little juicer of a parlay. Each fighter is elite in offensive control and has easily produced these results in the past.

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You can find me on Twitter @goldendomer622 if you have any questions about the process or comments in general. Tune into our next UFC 288 article. Good luck with your bets this weekend!!!!