UFC Fight Night Sandhagen vs. Song: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)
The UFC Apex will host another card as the UFC has made full use of the facility with over 60 events since May 2020. The octagon size is 25 feet in diameter, which is smaller than the regular 30-foot octagons. This usually leads to more action and higher-paced fights. Below is a parlay that takes advantage of fighters who will use the smaller octagon to their advantage.
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Leg 1: Pat Sabatini money line (-180)
Pat Sabatini will fight Damon Jackson on the featured bout of the undercard at 145 pounds. Both men have at least ten submission wins in their professional careers, with Jackson having 15 and Sabatini 10. Both men frequently shoot takedowns (2.47 takedown average per 15 minutes for Jackson, 3.84 for Sabatini), and Sabatini lands them at a higher clip.
These two have similar strengths, which likely means the fight occurs standing. Sabatini has an advantage there as he has more power and explosiveness. Jackson averages 2.55 strikes landed per minute but absorbs 2.86 per minute. Sabatini averages 1.69 and absorbs 1.30 strikes per minute, so he is the more defensive fighter. This bout should be a competitive fight that goes to the scorecards (-200 to go to decision on DraftKings), and Sabatini should do enough on the feet to get the nod.
Leg 2: Chidi Njokuani vs. Gregory Rodrigues does not go to decision (-250)
Chidi Njokuani has made quick work of his opponents thus far in his two fights in the UFC. Before the UFC, he spent a few years in Bellator, so he is far more experienced than most fighters entering the UFC. In Rodrigues’ first four fights in the promotion, he has two knockouts and two bouts that went to a decision (1-1 in them). Njokuani’s average fight time is seven minutes and 55 seconds, while Rodrigues averages eight minutes and 46 seconds.
Njokuani is an incredibly accurate striker (73% accuracy) and can turn the lights off with one punch. He will also have a five-inch reach advantage. Rodrigues, on the other hand, is a pressure fighter with solid grappling. He lands 6.00 strikes per minute and absorbs 5.73 per minute. Rodrigues lands 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is the weakest part of Njokuani’s skillset. The path to victory for Njokuani is via knockout, while Rodrigues’ path is likely via submission or ground and pound.
Leg 3: Cory Sandhagen money line (-190)
The main event of the night will feature a bantamweight matchup between Cory Sandhagen and Song Yadong. The 30-year-old Sandhagen will have a 3-inch reach and height advantage over the 24-year-old Song. Song made his UFC debut when he was only 20 years old and has gone 8-1-1 in the promotion. Sandhagen has lost his last two fights via decision to a couple of the toughest guys in the division, Petr Yan and T.J. Dillashaw. Both were five-round fights, and he accepted the Yan fight on short notice. He also lost to Aljamain Sterling, so he has only lost to fighters who have held the belt.
This fight will be a jump up in competition for Song. He does not have experience in a five-round bout and has not fought anyone in the upper echelon of the division. In his loss and draw, he got taken down multiple times. Sandhagen may try wrestle (0.71 average takedowns landed per 15 minutes) to create opportunities on the ground. Song will also have to get the unorthodox timing of Sandhagen figured out if he is to win on the feet. Sandhagen uses an abundance of elbows and knees from awkward angles to throw off and damage his opponent. The use of feints to draw out Song’s attacks will also be a factor in this fight. He lands 6.42 strikes per minute while only absorbing 4.50. Sandhagen should win this based on volume if he does not get the finish inside the distance.
Parlay: +232 on DraftKings
DraftKings has the best odds for this parlay. Betting enough to win one unit is the way to go with this parlay. The prelims start at 4 pm EDT while the main card begins at 7 pm EDT.
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