UFC Fight Night Song vs. Simon: Longshot Bets Picks & Predictions (2023)
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon gets underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. While this card is certainly not the most loaded of affairs, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
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UFC Fight Night Song vs. Simon: Best Longshot Bets
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta
On the main card, there is a heavyweight bout between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Riding a three-fight win streak since appearing on Dana White’s Contender Series in the summer of 2022, Cortes-Acosta looks to keep his spotless 9-0 professional record intact.
Possessing devastating power, the former Bellator and LFA heavyweight has won five of his nine professional fights inside the distance, something that could occur once again in this bout against the smaller Rogerio de Lima. We should expect to see Cortes-Acosta utilize his size to keep Rogerio de Lima at a distance, boasting a three-inch height and reach advantage.
On the other hand, Rogerio de Lima will likely attempt to shoot early and often to bring this fight to the mat. With that said, since joining the UFC, he only possesses 50% takedown accuracy while Cortes-Acosta boasts 66% takedown accuracy.
If Cortes-Acosta can keep this fight on the feet, then it could be a short night for Rogerio de Lima. Six of his eight professional losses have come inside the distance, and with Cortes-Acosta’s size and power advantage, this trend could continue on Saturday.
Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta Inside the Distance (+300 via DraftKings)
Song Yadong vs. Ricky Simon
In the main event, there is a thrilling bantamweight bout set to take place between the No. 8 contender Song Yadong and No. 10 Ricky Simon. Simon enters this bout in fantastic form, winning each of his past five scraps, including a massive win over Jack Shore last July.
His resume since joining the UFC is pretty remarkable, going 9-2 with key wins over guys like Shore and Merab Dvalishvili while only losing to renowned fighters Urijah Faber and Rob Font. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Simon is a remarkable grappler who has landed 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes under the UFC promotion.
While he is always a threat to win via submission, Simon can also lean on that grappling to rack up points and win via decision, something he has done in half of his 20 professional wins. This method of victory is his most logical path against Song Yadong, a guy who boasts a chin of steel and has only been finished once.
Technically speaking, there are two knockout losses on his resume, although his most recent one was due to a doctor’s stoppage between Rounds 4 and five against Cory Sandhagen when a cut above his eye got too problematic toward the end of the fight. Song Yadong prefers to stand and bang, but Simon’s relentless takedowns may be too much for him to handle, which could lead to a decision loss in a very similar fashion to his losing bout against Kyler Phillips last year.
Pick: Ricky Simon via Decision (+225 via BetRivers)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.