UFC Fight Night Song vs. Simon: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)

Before a stacked PPV UFC 288 card, the UFC is at the Apex to put on a fight night card. Song Yadong and Ricky Simon will headline the card as the only matchup between ranked fighters. It also features two heavyweight bouts and some heavy-handed fighters, so there could be tons of action. It is usually the cards that are not as stacked that end up being entertaining. The prelims begin at 4:30 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.

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2023 total: Down 8.14 units

UFC Vegas 72 Song vs Simon: Parlay Picks

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Josh Quinlan Moneyline (-170)

The first leg features a welterweight bout between Josh Quinlan and Trey Waters, who is accepting this fight on a week’s notice. When fighters enter with seven or fewer days, they lose 73% of the time. Waters also won the LFA welterweight championship on April 14th, so there will be 15 days separating his fights. He is 6’5” and will have a reach and height advantage of five inches over Quinlan. He is tall and thin at welterweight, which is not great for this matchup. Quinlan has power in both hands and has had an entire camp for this fight, even though he was preparing for someone else.

Quinlan has only had one UFC fight, a knockout victory over Jason Witt. Both men appeared on Dana White’s Contender Series, but there are few stats available for these fighters. Waters got knocked out by Gabriel Bonfim in his bout. Quinlan’s was overturned and deemed a no-contest because he tested positive for a banned substance but he won that fight via knockout. Waters is stepping into a dangerous bout on short notice, two weeks after competing and making his UFC debut. He is in a good spot to fade, and Quinlan should be able to get the finish with his power.

Leg 2: Waldo Cortes-Acosta Moneyline (+155)

In the heavyweight division, Waldo Cortes-Acosta is taking on veteran Marcos Rogerio de Lima. He has been active in the UFC since 2014 with a record of 8-6 with the promotion. Cortes-Acosta will walk into the octagon for the third time in his career following back-to-back decision victories in 2022. He will have a three-inch height and reach advantage over de Lima but far less experience. He is 9-0 as a professional compared to 20-9-1 for de Lima. Cortes-Acosta has better striking, being a former boxer, but de Lima has better jiu-jitsu.

Cortes-Acosta was taken down once in his fight with Chase Sherman, but it came late in the first round, and Sherman did nothing with it. The cause for concern in this fight is if de Lima can secure a takedown. He averages 1.09 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is generally not the best wrestler. He has tremendous jiu-jitsu, which he will surely want to use, but he first must get the fight to the mat. Cortes-Acosta will give him problems standing, however. He lands nearly eight significant strikes per minute, a volume that most heavyweights do not see. Cortes-Acosta needs to survive any moments on the ground, and he should get the victory via a decision or knockout.

Leg 3: Ricky Simon Moneyline (-120)

Ricky Simon is taking on Song Yadong in the main event in a top-10 bantamweight bout. Song is a heavy hitter with quick hands, and Simon is a dominant wrestler. He averages 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes and keeps a tremendous pace. Simon is riding a five-fight winning streak and dominated control time in each. His last loss came against Rob Font, and he landed six takedowns. Song is entering the fight after losing to Cory Sandhagen by knockout. He had a nasty cut above his eye, which forced the doctor to stop it.

Song is a legit prospect with a bright future but he has some areas to improve in his game. He struggles against fighters with a wrestling base. Kyler Phillips took Song down three times  and Cody Stamann took him down five times, as both secured decision victories against him. Song will have trouble defending Simon’s takedowns and needs to find big shots to wobble Simon. They will be hard to find if Song is lying on his back for most of the fight. This bout was supposed to be the co-main event of last week’s card, but now it is the main event this week and bumped up to a five-round fight. More time gives Simon more of an advantage as he can use his cardio to wear on Song. Song should win most of the time on the feet, but he will not get much time there. Simon has an easier path to victory, which gives him a slight edge.

Parlay Odds: +642

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The main card starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.

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