UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Picks & Predictions (Houston)
The UFC is back in action this week, and we have a stacked Fight Night card on Saturday in Houston, Texas. All roads lead to a likely title eliminator bout in the Middleweight Division, with Sean Strickland (No. 3) squaring off against Anthony Hernandez (no. 4). Below, I'll dive into that fight, as well as two others, from a betting angle. Here are my top bets for this weekend's UFC Fight Night event in Houston.
Watch big title fights on DAZN>>
UFC Fight Night Strickland vs. Hernandez Picks & Bets (UFC Houston)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Sean Strickland (+230) vs. Anthony Hernandez (-285)
Anthony Hernandez has seen a meteoric rise up the Middleweight rankings, entering Saturday's event riding an eight-fight winning streak. He's a sizable -285 Moneyline favorite against former champion Sean Strickland, who has dropped two of his last three bouts.
Hernandez will likely win this fight, and I think it'll be due to his relentless pressure and elite cardio. However, I don't think it'll be a victory by finish. I'm locking in the fight to go the distance at -150 as my best bet.
Strickland's takedown defense should hold up well, as he's fending off 76% off opposing takedown attempts. The former champion has also yet to be submitted throughout his professional MMA career. He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with solid wrestling, and considering he has fought the tougher competition in the UFC, there's a decent chance Strickland avoids danger on the ground.
On the feet, Strickland doesn't really have elite power. He only has one knockout across his last seven fights, with the other six bouts going to the judges' scorecards. Hernandez only has three knockouts in his 15-2 (one no contest) career. This is an excellent fight from the clash-of-styles perspective. Hernandez's unrelenting nature ultimately gets him the win. But fighters guys have the skill set to negate their opponent's strengths. Look for the main event to last the full 25 minutes.
Bet: Fight to go the Distance (-150)
Serghei Spivac (+120) vs. Ante Delija (-142)
We have a top-10 Heavyweight Division clash on Saturday's card, as Serghei Spivac (No. 7) takes on Ante Delija (No. 9). In terms of betting odds, this is the tightest fight on the main card, with Delija coming in as a -142 Moneyline favorite. Both men are fresh off losses to Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
I'll back Spivac as an underdog in this one. He's just 1-3 in his last four fights, but those losses have come against some of the better-ranked heavyweights on the roster. The defeats were against Ciryl Gane (KO - Punches), Jailton Almeida (KO - Punches) and Cortes-Acosta (U-DEC). He has fought the cream of the crop throughout his UFC career, and he should have no issues breaking down his Croatian opponent.
Mostly, I really like that Spivac is a jack of all trades in the octagon. Throughout his 17-6 career, he has seven knockouts and eight submission victories. His ability to mix in takedowns in the Heavyweight Division is a huge advantage. Spivac is averaging 4.21 successful takedowns per 15 minutes at a 62% rate. I think he gets Delija to the canvas and goes to work to find a ground-and-pound finish or a submission. The wrong fighter is favored in this bout. Give me the underdog.
Bet: Serghei Spivac Moneyline (+120)
Zachary Reese (+130) vs. Michel Pereira (-155)
The main card opens up with an intriguing bout in the Middleweight Division, as Zachary Reese gears up to take on Michel Pereira. Pereira, despite dropping three straight fights, is a modest -155 Moneyline favorite in this bout.
I'll lay the juice and back Pereira on the Moneyline. The 32-year-old fighter has fallen into a bit of a gatekeeper role, but I do think this is a great get-right spot for the Brazilian. He's easily the more battle-tested brawler, and it's safe to say he trains out of the better gym and is the more versatile fighter.
Reese's biggest strength is his jiu-jitsu. He has a pair of submission wins throughout his eight-fight UFC tenure, and he's averaging 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. However, Pereira, who's a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and boasts a 76% takedown defense rate, should be able to neutralize that aspect of Reese's game.
Pereira should manage to keep the fight upright, which is where he'll be able to do some damage. Reese owns a lousy 39% strike defense rate, meaning 61% of his opponents' significant strike attempts have landed. With Pereira being the more technical, veteran fighter, he should shred the inexperienced Reese on the feet.
Bet: Michel Pereira Moneyline (-155)