UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Imavov: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
The first UFC event of 2023 is here and will take place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Sean Strickland is stepping in on short notice to replace Kelvin Gastelum, who was supposed to take on Nassourdine Imavov. Strickland headlined the final event of 2022 and is returning in under a month since his loss to Jared Cannonier. The card has a few exciting stand-up fights and features some young, up-and-coming prospects trying to make a name for themselves. The prelims will start at 4 p.m. EST on ESPN+, and the main event will start three hours later at 7 p.m.
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UFC Fight Night Strickland vs Imavov: Parlay Picks
Leg 1: Javid Basharat money line (-315)
Javid Basharat is coming into this fight after winning his first two UFC bouts and an undefeated record with 13 victories. He will be fighting Mateus Mendonca, who is making his UFC debut and is also undefeated with 10 victories. Basharat won via unanimous decision against Tony Gravely, a proven wrestler and a middle-of-the-pack bantamweight fighter. Mendonca won his Contender Series fight via knockout but has not faced the competition that Basharat has faced, and this fight will be a big step up for him.
Basharat lands 5.41 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.42 significant strikes. He also averaged 1.7 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and is a well-rounded fighter. He has five knockouts, six submissions, and two wins via decision in his career. Mendonca is also skilled on the mat, so this should happen on the feet. Basharat should be the better striker if he can stay out of the way of Mendonca's power shots. Mendonca's aggression may get him in trouble, and Basharat may have a chance to finish the fight with a knockout.
Leg 2: Umar Nurmagomedov money line (-950)
The heaviest favorite on the card is Umar Nurmagomedov. He is undefeated and has 15 victories, with three coming in the UFC. He is also a cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov and is also from Dagestan. His opponent, Raoni Barcelos, is a UFC veteran at 35 years old, while Umar is 26. Barcelos is tough and dangerous on the feet, but Nurmagomedov will attempt to take him down and hold him there. Nurmagomedov averages 5.02 takedowns landed per 15 minutes and has only absorbed 10 total significant strikes in his UFC career. He is a smothering wrestler, much like Khabib, and Barcelos will have tons of trouble trying to get to his feet. This fight will likely go all three rounds, but it would not be surprising if Nurmagomedov worked his way to a submission in the latter half of the bout.
Leg 3: Ketlen Vieira money line (-120)
The number two ranked fighter in the women's bantamweight division, Ketlen Vieira, will take on the number five ranked fighter, Raquel Pennington. Pennington enters this fight on a four-fight win streak since her loss to Holly Holm. Vieira has won two consecutive bouts over Miesha Tate and Holly Holm, both five-rounders. Vieira is a much-improved striker from when she joined the UFC in 2016, which she will need against "Rocky" Pennington.
Pennington is a skilled striker who likes to work from the clinch and up against the cage. Vieira needs to keep her distance and use her kickboxing to keep "Rocky" at bay. Vieira lands 3.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.03 strikes. Pennington land 3.93 strikes and absorbs 3.28 strikes per minute. Vieira should have the advantage on the mat, as she averages 1.51 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, compared to just 1.00 for Pennington. Pennington's takedown defense is 63%, and she has been taken down at least once in each fight during her current win streak. Vieira is too well-rounded and should give Pennington fits if she can stay away from her clinch.
Parlay: +166 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting enough to win one unit is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
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