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UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov Odds, Picks & Predictions (Vegas 76)

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Last week in the UFC showed off some of the upcoming talents in numerous divisions. We ended up going 2-2 and didn’t have much to show for it. This week is looked at almost as a filler card going into UFC 290 next weekend. Yet, we still have some intriguing matchups and have the opportunity to capture some value.

Let’s dive in and see if we can get some winners to the window!

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Record:

  • ML: 16-11-1 (+2.30 units)
  • Props: 4-8-1 (-2.60 units)
  • Parlays 1-10 (-3.09 units)
  • Overall (-3.39 units)

MMA is one of the few sports that seems to be lacking in advanced statistics. We have all watched a fight card and seen the statistics flash across the screen for significant strikes, takedowns, knockouts, etc. The main issue is that it is hard to apply those basic statistics in a way that correlates to success.

We will examine numerous advanced statistics that paint a more concrete picture of each matchup. Not only will this help us make more informed bets, but it will also make us more knowledgeable about an extremely volatile sport. Let’s look at the statistics to help us make our best bets.

Glossary

  • Distance Time: Amount of time fought at a distance
  • Distance Strikes/Min: Distance strikes landed per minute
  • Distance Strikes Att/Min: Distance strikes attempted per minute (a great indicator of pace)
  • Distance Strike Accuracy: Percentage of distance strikes landed (37% is the UFC average)
  • Distance Defense: Percentage of distance strikes allowed (63% is the UFC average, higher defense equals better defense)
  • KD%: Knockdown percentage (Knockdowns/Distance Strikes landed. 3% or higher is noteworthy)
  • Control Time: Time fought in the clinch or on ground
  • Control % Offense: Control time/Total time (higher %= better for offense)
  • Control % Defense: Control time allowed/ Total time (lower %= better for defense)

The main key to this analysis is looking at each fighter’s last three fights. This indicates a fighter’s form and general ability more than including fights from six to seven years ago that could skew the data. Let’s dive into some of our best bets for this upcoming UFC card.

Kevin Lee (+175) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (-205)

Kevin Lee

  • Dist Acc Off: 38.12%
  • Dist Att/Min: 16.13
  • Dist Def: 49%
  • KD%: .9% (1 KD out of 106 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 28.6%
  • Control % Def: 3.3%

Rinat Fakhretdinov

  • Dist Acc Off: 58.1%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.35
  • Dist Def: 69%
  • KD%: 5.5% (1 KD out of 18 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 90.6%
  • Control % Def: 2.1%

You are looking at that correctly. Rinat Fakhretdinov has a Control % Offense of 90%. He has fought at a distance for a grand total of two minutes and 10 seconds in two fights, both that went the distance. Rinat’s striking numbers can be overlooked simply because of the small sample size, but the control numbers are valid. Kevin Lee returns to the UFC, and they immediately give him to the wolves. Lee was able to stop Gergor Gillespie, who had a ton of hype behind him, but I don’t see that happening here.

Bet: Rinat (-200) – my favorite play of the card

Max Griffin (+210) vs. Michael Morales (-250)

Max Griffin 

  • Dist Acc Off: 53.9%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.39
  • Dist Def: 66%
  • KD%: 1.6% (3 KDs out of 179 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 15.6%
  • Control % Def: 13.3%

Michael Morales

  • Dist Acc Off: 45.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 12.74
  • Dist Def: 41%
  • KD%: 2.7% (3 KDs out of 111 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 22.4%
  • Control % Def: 8.3%

There is one thing that stands out in this fight that I cannot get past. Michael Morales has a distance defense of 41%; the UFC average is 63%. That is an unreal difference. The fact that Max Griffin has one knockdown in each of his last three fights should be concerning for Morales backers. Griffin is more accurate offensively and more disciplined defensively.

Bet: Max Griffin (+210)

Damir Ismagulov (-115) vs. Grant Dawson (-105)

Damir Ismagulov

  • Dist Acc Off: 53.1%
  • Dist Att/Min: 10.02
  • Dist Def: 60%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 139 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 18.9%
  • Control % Def: 22.9%

Grant Dawson 

  • Dist Acc Off: 48.2%
  • Dist Att/Min: 14.08
  • Dist Def: 50%
  • KD%: 1.4% (1 KD out of 68 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 60.7%
  • Control % Def: 14.7%

This is a pretty straightforward fight. If Grant Dawson implements his control game, he will win. If it is kept at a distance Damir Ismagulov has a distinct advantage. It is rare to see a fighter with an offensive control % over 50. Dawson has a more direct path to victory.

Bet: Grant Dawson (-105)

Sean Strickland (-150) vs. Abus Magomedov (+130)

Sean Strickland 

  • Dist Acc Off: 41.4%
  • Dist Att/Min: 17.42
  • Dist Def: 55%
  • KD%: 0% (0 KDs out of 342 distance strikes)
  • Control % Off: 9.5%
  • Control % Def: .4%

Avus Magomedov only has one fight in the UFC, and it lasted 19 seconds. Therefore, we don’t have much to go off of to make an advanced statistics profile. Magomedov has seven higher promotional fights, five in PFL, one in UFC and one in KSW. He is 5-1-1 and has four finishes (three KOs and one submission).

Everyone pretty much knows Strickland’s game plan. He is a high-activity fighter who jabs, jabs and jabs some more while just pestering his opponents for 25 straight minutes. He is essentially like a gnat at a barbecue. It has been extremely effective against fighters who were not upper-echelon (Jared Cannonier, Alex Pereira, and even Kamaru Usman at welterweight).

Yet, I will go with Magomedov here, as I believe his aggressive style will disrupt Strickland’s standard game plan.

Bet: Magomedov (+130)

The Bets

ML Parlay

  • Abus Magomedov (+130)
  • Rinat Fakhretdinov (-210)

We have two fighters with clear paths to victory.

Parlay odds: +242

Lottery Ticket Parlay:

  • Abus Magomedov (+130)
  • Rinat Fakhretdinov (-210)
  • Grant Dawson (-105)
  • Max Griffin (+210)

This is exactly what it says, a lottery ticket parlay. I wouldn’t risk more than .25 units on it or whatever you are comfortable with.

Parlay odds: +1955

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Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or if you have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!