UFC Fight Night Strickland vs. Magomedov: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (Vegas 76)

The UFC is back in the small octagon of the UFC Apex this weekend. Sean Strickland is putting his number seven ranking on the line against unranked Abus Magomedov in the main event. Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson will face off in a top-15 lightweight matchup for the co-main event. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. EDT, and the main card starts at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN.

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UFC Vegas 76 Strickland vs Magomedov: Parlay Picks

2023 total: Down 7.74 units | Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leg 1: Ismael Bonfim Moneyline (-295)

Ismael Bonfim has a tremendous matchup against Benoit Saint-Denis. Bonfim is a solid striker with good takedown defense. Saint-Denis is a wrestler with decent power in his hands. He does tend to get hit, which is not good against Bonfim. Bonfim lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 2.65 strikes per minute. Saint-Denis lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 6.72 strikes per minute. His defense on the feet is lackluster, and Bonfim should make him pay for it. Bonfim should be able to land heavy shots on Saint-Denis and may even have a chance to finish him with a knee up the middle.

Saint-Denis averages 3.36 takedowns per three rounds, but Bonfim has defended every takedown in the UFC. Bonfim is a decent grappler in his own right and should be able to keep this fight standing. He is still trying to cement his name as a fighter to be feared, and this is the matchup to put everyone on notice.

Leg 2: Ariane Lipski Moneyline (+190)

Lipski looked tremendous in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. She landed two takedowns and 101 significant strikes en route to a unanimous decision victory. Lipski is fighting Melissa Gatto, a submission threat with little power in her hands. She also tends to pull guard looking for a submission, but it may work against her this weekend. Lipski has never been submitted as a professional and can win from the top position. Gatto averages 1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Lipski averages .47 takedowns. The big difference in this one is the amount of heat behind their punches. Lipski lands heavier shots and should have confidence heading into this fight. Gatto lost her last bout against Tracy Cortez and is trending in the wrong direction. Lipski is a live underdog and has a chance to win this fight.

Leg 3: Michael Morales Moneyline (-250)

Michael Morales is facing his best opponent yet in Max Griffin. Griffin is 14 years his senior and has double the amount of fights. Morales has youth on his side, however. He should hold a speed advantage and a three-inch reach advantage. Morales is undefeated at 14-0 and getting better each time he steps in the cage. Morales lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.10 strikes per minute. Griffin lands 4.23 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.87 strikes per minute. He must make this a dirty, grimy fight because Morales will pick him apart from range. It is likely even on the ground, so whoever gets top control will have an advantage. Griffin can use his experience to gain an edge on Morales, but he will be at a disadvantage in most aspects against the top prospect Morales.

Total Parlay Odds: +443

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