UFC Freedom 250 Main Card Picks & Predictions (2026)
The biggest UFC card of the year is celebrating the 250th anniversary of American Independence. The card is on Sunday, or Flag Day, and takes place on the South Lawn of the White House. The event was first announced on July 3, 2025, by President Donald Trump, and it is almost here after a year of planning and logistics. This is a once-in-a-lifetime event with many nuances. The card starts at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, June 14, and only features a main card on Paramount+.
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UFC Freedom 250 Main Card Odds, Picks & Predictions (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Diego Lopes (-148) vs. Steve Garcia (+124)
This is the opening fight on this card and could be a main event on any numbered card. This is a terrific matchup. Diego Lopes has only lost to Alexander Volkanovski since 2025, and both times were title fights. He also beat Jean Silva via knockout in between those knockouts.
Steve Garcia is on a seven-fight winning streak, coming off a knockout victory against David Onama. He has won six of seven via knockout, and the lone decision win on his streak came against the durable Calvin Kattar.
The biggest factor on this card is the fights taking place outside. There is a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, and the humidity is high. That could affect fighters' cardio and output. It is also expected to be hot, but it should get cooler as the sun sets. This is the first fight of the card, so it should start near the sunset time of 8:36 p.m. ET. I think that helps Lopes.
Garcia is a pressure fighter who is looking to land power punches and make you uncomfortable. Lopes is not the fighter to rush in against. He has quick hands and lands powerful counter punches. He is also extremely durable, with no signs of losing that durability. Lopes winning this fight via knockout is the most likely outcome for him, and I like him to start the card in style.
Pick: Diego Lopes (-148)
Alex Pereira (-105) vs. Ciryl Gane (-115)
The co-main event on the card is a heavyweight interim title bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane. Gane is a terrific matchup for Pereira in his first heavyweight bout, and gives him a look that he is used to at lower weight classes. Gane is fast, especially for the weight class, and moves with fluidity.
Pereira's latest fight was a win over Magomed Ankalaev to win the light heavyweight belt. He lost the first matchup against Ankalaev in 2025, but responded well seven months later. Gane's latest fight was a no-contest against Tom Aspinall, due to an eye poke from Gane.
Gane has a two-inch reach advantage and typically uses it to stay on the outside. He has good movement and lands well from range. Pereira is an elite kickboxer and can land inside. He is a powerful puncher and kicker, with a knack for landing accurate and powerful knockout blows.
If this fight lasts longer than a couple of rounds, it may give the advantage to the fighter with better cardio. That should benefit Pereira, who bounces less and is typically the fighter moving forward. Pereira also has the power advantage in this fight. He is a different level of striker, and Gane does not have the wrestling ability to change the script. Pereira has the chance for another viral knockout on a massive card at the White House.
Pick: Alex Pereira (-105)