UFC Orlando Odds, Picks & Predictions: Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos (2022)
Only three cards stand between now and the end of the year, as UFC Orlando goes off this weekend to get December started. We have been red hot as of late, picking fights at 71% accuracy during the month of November in my free UFC predictions.
The slate is wiped clean now; however, a new card and month bring a new slate of fights for us to analyze. Let’s take a closer look at Saturday’s co-main event between a pair of elite welterweights, Bryan Baberena and Rafael dos Anjos.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Bryan Barberena (18-8-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-L-W)
Coming into this fight on the first three-fight win streak of his UFC career, Barberena has earned this co-main event spot with some stellar performances as of late. In his latest fight, a second-round stoppage of Robbie Lawler produced his first finish since August of 2018, a performance he’ll be looking to repeat here.
What he lacks in this matchup in grappling he makes up for in striking with a 6.11 significant strikes landed per minute clip (vs. 3.58). However, he tends to absorb more shots, taking 5.01 per minute compared to 3.23 from dos Anjos.
Betting Profile: Rafael dos Anjos (31-14-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-L-L)
If Barberena is a veteran of the UFC with 15 fights under the banner, dos Anjos is a foundational piece with a staggering 31 fights as of this week. After winning two of his past three fights, I wouldn’t say he’s fizzling out yet, but their signs are starting to appear in the foundation.
The last time we saw him inside of the octagon was a KO/TKO loss to Rafael Fiziev in July. Coming into this fight, dos Anjos holds edges in takedown average per 15 minutes (10x) and submission average per 15 minutes (.75x).
Bottom Line
While I do give dos Anjos the edge in this fight despite his age, I have it closer to the -200 range and nowhere near the -400 he is seeing in the market today. There’s another angle of this fight that I like, however, that I think offers a ton of value.
Between the two, these guys average 2.71 rounds per appearance in the octagon, with eight of their last 10 going the distance. Despite both coming in off fights that ended inside the distance, dos Anjos took five rounds to get that result.
I don’t expect this number to last for long.
Best Bet: Fight Goes to Decision (-180 via DraftKings)
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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.