UFC Orlando Odds, Picks & Predictions: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland (2022)
We absolutely crushed the month of November with our free UFC predictions, going 71% to follow up an October that saw us go 74%. With the calendar turned to December, we continue with an absolute banger of a card for UFC Orlando; one of the best free nights of fights (on paper) that I can recall.
With strong action from top to bottom, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening featuring two welterweights on the rise, Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting Profile: Stephen Thompson (16-6-1)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-W-L)
With back-to-back losses and having lost four of his past six, Thompson desperately needs a win here to stay relevant in the division. Since drawing and then losing title fights against Tyron Woodley in 2016/2017, “Wonderboy†has struggled to get back to that same level of consistency.
As of this fight, Thompson does hold edges, albeit slightly, in both knockdown and significant strikes landed per minute averages. While he trails in grappling, he holds a takedown defense of 13%, which should be on display throughout.
Betting Profile: Kevin Holland (23-7-0)
Last Five Fights (L-W-W-D-L)
After being fed to Khamzat Chimaev to save UFC 279, Holland is being returned the favor as the unranked fighter gets a crack at a top 10 guy here in Thompson. Before the Khamzat fight, Holland had won two straight over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means, both in the second round and in decisive fashion.
Coming into this matchup, Holland has the clear advantage in grappling, with a submission average of .58 per 15 minutes (vs. 0) and takedown average of .83 per 15 minutes (vs. .29). Additionally, while he slightly trails striking volume, he is 11% more accurate than Thompson in terms of significant strikes landed.
Bottom Line
While my numbers point me toward Thompson in this fight, the intangibles just won’t allow me to bet on him. First off, the number of edges is slight, and with the significant grappling advantage, Holland simply has more paths to victory here, even on paper.
Second, the ring rust factor keeps me away from Thompson, having not fought in over a year. Lastly, the age gap is a very real factor when considering taking a side in an MMA fight. At 10 years, that points towards an advantage for Holland as well.
While we’ve already seen the favorite-underdog flip in this one, I think it’s the right move.
Best Bet: Kevin Holland (-130 via DraftKings)
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