UFC Vegas 65 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2022)
UFC Vegas 65 will get underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, NV. Despite the lack of big names outside of the main event, plenty of good scraps are set to take place throughout the afternoon.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll.
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(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
UFC Vegas 65 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets
Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac
In the main event, we have a heavyweight bout between the #7 contender Derrick Lewis and #12 contender Serghei Spivac. Despite the difference in rankings, Spivac has been bet up all the way to his current price of -200.
The fact of the matter is that Lewis’ best days are long behind. A fan favorite, Lewis has been putting on shows for fans for over eight years. However, father time is undefeated.
Entering this scrap, Lewis has lost three of his last four fights, all of which came via knockout. Each of his last two knockout losses came inside the first seven minutes as his chin is starting to fail him against younger fighters who are hungry for title shots.
This trend should continue against Spivac, who is almost 10 years younger and in much better form. Spivac has now won five of his last six fights, three of which came via KO/TKO in either rounds one or two.
His only loss in that stretch was to Tom Aspinall, who is the #6 contender in the heavyweight division. Spivac’s round two prop carries some good value, especially considering that he will likely mix in some grappling with his striking.
Grappling buys time in fights, which could be the only reason Lewis sees the second round. Regardless of what route Spivac takes for this fight, he should be able to get Lewis out of there by the end of the second round at the latest, considering that, at these points in each guy’s respective careers, Spivac is the better striker, grappler, and wrestler.
Pick: Serghei Spivac to Win in Round 2 (+500)
Ion Cutelaba vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu
Before the main event, we have a light heavyweight bout between Ion Cutelaba and Kennedy Nzechukwu. Cutelaba’s future in the UFC is potentially on the line considering that he has just one win and one draw over his last six fights.
A physically imposing wrestler, Cutelaba shoots and records takedowns at a high level, averaging 4.68 takedowns per 15 minutes at 63% accuracy. This takedown offense will surely be tested against Nzechukwu, who boasts an 81% takedown defense.
Giving up eight inches in reach and four inches in height, Cutelaba’s game plan will surely bring this fight to the mat, while Nzechukwu will likely want to keep this one standing. This clash of fight styles could make this scrap see the final bell despite the size and power of each fighter.
The fight going the distance would benefit Cutelaba, who will look for takedowns and control time to accumulate points and win rounds in the eyes of the judges. This method is exactly how he won via unanimous decision against Devin Clark in September of 2021.
Cutelaba landed eight takedowns in that scrap and racked up 8:48 of control time, which was more than enough to get to the final bell and win an easy decision. With his back against the wall regarding his UFC future and the striking power of Nzechukwu, Cutelaba will utilize this same strategy and could come out victorious if this fight goes the distance.
Before his latest knockout victory over Karl Roberson, Nzechukwu lost via decision to Nicolae Negumereanu, who landed a takedown and accumulated 3:28 of control time.
Pick: Ion Cutelaba via Decision (+850)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.