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UFC Vegas 68 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)

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UFC Vegas 68 gets underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card mostly features a bunch of contender fights between Asia’s biggest MMA prospects.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.

UFC Vegas 68 Best Longshot Bets

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Jun Yong Park vs. Denis Tiuliulin

On the preliminary card, there is a middleweight bout between Park and Tiuliulin. Entering this scrap in great form, Park has won five of his last six fights.

A big part of this success has been his tremendous grappling. Landing plenty of takedowns while amassing an abundant amount of control time over this successful stretch, Park really displayed his grappling ability in his last victory over Joseph Holmes when he pulled off a rear naked choke in the second round.

Giving up three inches in height and four inches in reach to the larger Tiuliulin, we should expect Park to rely on his grappling once again as he searches for yet another win. Meanwhile, Tiuliulin is just 1-1 since entering the UFC, with his lone loss coming via rear naked choke against Aliaskhab Khizriev.

A strong striker who likes to avoid grappling, Tiuliulin previously fought under the ACB and Brave CF promotions. Across those two promotions, two of Tiuliulin’s four losses were via submission.

This bout features a good contrast of styles, but Tiuliulin’s grappling defense has not looked impressive enough to warrant this long price of Park’s submission prop.

Pick: Park via Submission (+350 at Barstool)

Derrick Lewis vs. Serghei Spivac

In the main event, there is a heavyweight bout between Lewis and Spivac. While Lewis is a fan favorite and usually draws a lot of action at sportsbooks just because of his popularity, his best days are most likely behind him.

Entering this scrap, Lewis has lost three of his last four fights, with his lone win coming against Chris Daukaus, who has also lost three straight fights. Each of Lewis’ three losses were inside the distance as he looks as though he has lost his step.

As is typically the case when Lewis enters the octagon, his best chance at winning is by sparking Spivac. However, Spivac will likely take that option away from Lewis when he ultimately brings this fight to the mat.

This fight is a big step up for Spivac, who has won five of his last six scraps with his lone loss coming against the title-contending Tom Aspinall. Spivac is a tremendous mixed martial artist who can dominate you both on the feet and on the mat.

However, with Lewis’ power and larger size, Spivac will almost certainly bring this to the mat like he did in his wins against Augusto Sakai and Tai Tuivasa. The win against Tuivasa came via submission, which is an avenue to victory that is far more likely to happen again than the +360 price would indicate.

Pick: Spivac via Submission (+360 at Barstool)

Best of luck!

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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.