UFC Vegas 69 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best Longshot Bets (2023)
UFC Vegas 69 gets underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card is not the deepest or grandest of affairs, but there are still some great betting angles to take.
Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this event. These plays are 0.5 units each, or 0.5% of your betting bankroll.
UFC Vegas 69 Best Longshot Bets
Follow me on Twitter to get all my plays on days without full write-ups.
Jim Miller vs. Alexander Hernandez
To kick off the main card, there is a lightweight bout between longtime vet Jim Miller and Alexander Hernandez. While Miller is a fan-favorite, boasts a better resume, and enters this bout in better form, Hernandez is the guy to back in this spot.
Miller is halfway out the door for his career, and each of his last three wins are against low-level fighters (no offense to Cowboy Cerrone, who was a mere shell of his former self). Hernandez has looked crisper and sharper over the past two years, despite going just 1-3 over that stretch.
While each of Hernandez’s last two wins are via knockout, Miller is a tough guy to finish in the octagon. Miller has been finished just once over his last 11 fights, with that lone loss coming via submission to Charles Oliveira.
Miller has not been knocked out since his loss to Dan Hooker in 2018. A strong mixed martial artist, Hernandez is capable of winning this scrap both on the feet and on the mat.
Due to Miller’s experience and technicality, I lean towards the avenue that Hernandez will bring this fight to the mat and go for a submission or decision victory. This may be one of the last opportunities to sell high on Miller, and Hernandez should be able to get back on track at the Apex.
Pick: Hernandez via Decision (+300 via DraftKings)
Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Simply put, Mayra Bueno Silva is a massive threat to anyone on the mat. Over her six UFC wins, four have come via submission.
All four of those submissions came in the first round, which means it could be an extremely quick night for the falling Lina Lansberg. Entering this bout in poor form, Lansberg has lost each of her last three fights and five of her last eight.
There are numerous reasons why Silva’s first-round submission prop is +400. Lansberg has not been finished in any of her last seven fights and has never been submitted professionally.
However, Silva can submit anyone in the matter of seconds, and the -475 favorite is poised to make quick work of Lansberg.
Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva via Rd 1 Submission (+400)
Best of luck!
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.