UFC Vegas 70 Krylov vs. Spann: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
This weekend’s main event features two top-10-ranked light heavyweight fighters with resumes full of finishes. Nikita Krylov will fight Ryan Spann for a chance to move up the rankings and one step closer to a title shot. There are also plenty of bouts that the oddsmakers have deemed toss-ups, so it is not a card to miss. The prelims start at 4 p.m. EST, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
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UFC Vegas 70 Krylov vs Spann: Parlay Picks
2023 total: Down 5 units
Leg 1: Tatiana Suarez money line (-750)
Tatiana Suarez has not fought since beating Nina Nunes in 2019 because of a neck and knee injury, but she is a challenging opponent, nonetheless. She has wins over former champion Carla Esparza and soon-to-be title challenger Alexa Grasso. Her opponent, Montana De La Rosa, has a record of 12-7-1 and has lost three of her last six fights. She has been much more active than Suarez, but it should not matter. Suarez averages 6.47 takedowns landed per 15 minutes with a 100% takedown defense. De La Rosa’s takedown defense is just 63%, and her grappling does not compare to Suarez’s.
The bout will take place in the women’s flyweight division, but Suarez wants to compete in the strawweight division in the future. She is the widest favorite on the card but may need some time to shake off the rust. On the feet, Suarez lands 4.82 significant strikes per minute with 65% accuracy while only absorbing 1.45 strikes per minute. De La Rosa lands 2.60 strikes per minute while absorbing 3.19 strikes per minute, so it is no surprise that Suarez is such a heavy favorite. De La Rosa will not be able to wrestle offensively, and Suarez should get the job done despite missing an extended period.
Leg 2: Andre Muniz money line (-225)
Muniz has been on a tear since entering the UFC, defeating some veterans of the sport in impressive fashion. Muniz has elite-level jiu-jitsu and has displayed his skills with three armbars since debuting in the UFC. He will be facing Brendan Allen, who is looking to take Muniz’s ranking in the middleweight division. Allen has a lone loss via a submission that came back in 2016 outside of the UFC to a current UFC fighter, Trevin Giles. He has formidable jiu-jitsu with 11 submission victories in his career, but he is not on the level of Muniz in that department.
Muniz has 15 submissions in his career and decent wrestling to get this to the mat. He averages 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Allen averages 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes. Both men have low takedown defense percentages, but this is normal. They do not mind being on their backs because they can cinch up a submission from that position. The oddsmakers have Muniz to win by submission listed at +120 and agree that is his path to victory.
Leg 3: Nikita Krylov moneyline (-170)
Krylov is in his second stint in the UFC and seems to be trending in the right direction. He is an all-around fighter with a solid chin who has only been knocked out once in his career, which came in the heavyweight division. He will have to be careful in the early portion of this fight, as Ryan Spann can shut anyone’s lights off if he lands a clean punch. However, Spann has not been out of the first round since winning a split decision over Sam Alvey in 2020 and has not shown an ability to keep his stamina deep into fights. On the other hand, Krylov has gone the distance with some of the top guys in the light heavyweight division and held his own throughout those fights.
Krylov averages 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute and absorbs 2.50 strikes per minute, while Spann lands and absorbs 3.42 significant strikes per minute. Both men have power, but Spann will be more dangerous early. Krylov lands 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and has 15 submission victories under his belt, while Spann has 12 to his name. Krylov has more experience grappling in the octagon and should have the advantage on the mat, especially in the later rounds. With a good game plan, Krylov should be able to weather the storm early in the fight and tire Spann out.
Parlay: +160 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The main event starts at 7 p.m. EST on ESPN+.
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