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UFC Vegas 70 Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann: Odds & Picks (2023)

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For UFC Vegas 70, which is happening this Saturday, it’s another great night of fights at the UFC APEX. The main event of this 13-fight card is a fight between No. 7-ranked Light Heavyweight contender Nikita “The Miner” Krylov and No. 8-ranked Light Heavyweight contender Ryan “Superman” Spann.

André “Sergipano” Muniz and Brendan “All In” Allen will fight in a Middleweight match as the co-main event, as heavyweights Augusto Sakai and Don’Tale Mayes, Welterweights Mike Malott and Yohan Lainesse, and Strawweights Tatiana Suarez and Montana De La Rosa all fight on the card as well.

Today, let’s take a closer look at one of the best free UFC main events of the year.

Best UFC Fight Night Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann Pick

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting Profile: Nikita Krylov (29-9-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-L-W)

Since 90% of the fights between these two (mostly three-round fights) have ended well before the final bell, I think it’s safe to say that this five-round fight will also end before the distance.

On paper, Krylov has a slight edge in striking, with 4.45 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.42, a striking accuracy of 55% compared to 44%, and only 2.5 shots taken per minute (vs. 3.42). Even on the ground, where Spann has a slight edge in average submissions (1.76 to 1.24), Krylov has the upper hand in both takedowns and defense against takedowns.

Even though both of these guys are coming in on two-fight winning streaks, I think the difference is in their past fight caliber and quality of opponent.

When it comes to being battle-tested, Krylov’s record is hard to beat. In his first four years in the promotion, he fought Johnny Walker, Jan Blachowicz (c), Glover Teixeira (c), Magomed Ankalev, and Paul Craig.

Betting Profile: Ryan Spann (21-7-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-L)

For Spann, his two wins came against Dominick Reyes and Ion Cutelaba, who have only won one of their 10 fights since 2019. Even though Alexander Gustaffson and Volkan Oezdemir aren’t exactly top fighters, Kyrlov’s wins against them carry more weight, both grizzled veterans of the UFC who do have big wins themselves in the past few years.

One notable area that Spann does have the advantage is the knockdown average, as he comes into this one with 1.76 per 15 minutes in the octagon. That’s compared to just .62 from Krylov.

Bottom Line

I think this step is too big for Spann and is a fight that Krylov can win in the second or third rounds if he withstands the early onslaught by “Superman” Spann.

Best Bet: Nikita Krylov (-170 via DraftKings)

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Johnny is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Johnny, check out his free UFC picks newsletter and follow him @JohnnyCovers.