UFC Vegas 71 Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili: Odds & Picks (2023)
At long last, we will be able to watch a free UFC fight night at a venue other than the Apex. Instead, the promotion will move its talent across town to The Theater at Virgin Hotels for a show that will be attended by more than 5,000 people and will be sold out.
And that’s not all: in addition to the main event bout between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili, we also get the rematch of the main event that was supposed to take place a few weeks ago between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann.
While Krylov/Spann should be quality, all eyes are on that bantamweight bout between Yan and Dvalishvili. Let’s take a closer look.
UFC Las Vegas: Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Profile: Petr Yan (16-4-0)
Last Five Fights (L-L-W-L-W)
Though he comes into this one having lost three of his past four, don’t let that fool you. His first defeat came in a championship defense he was having against Aljamain Sterling. The fight was going well for him until an illegal knee landed on Sterling while he was on the ground.
Seven months after claiming a convincing victory over Cory Sandhagen, Yan finally got his rematch versus Sterling, but this time, he came out on the wrong end of a contentious split decision. And then there was his terrible loss by split decision to O’Malley in October, which I won’t go into further detail about since I don’t have enough time or space in this Word document.
These three individuals have an overall record of 49-7, and their ranks range from current champion to number one challenger.
Betting Profile: Merab Dvalishvili (15-4-0)
Last Five Fights (W-W-W-W-W)
When it comes to Merab, it would be stretching things to claim that he does not deserve to be ranked third, but his bout history is noticeably less remarkable. Merab’s three previous victories came against Marlon Moraes, Cody Stamann, and John Dodson; all three are mostly considered to be UFC journeymen and have a combined record of 63-22. Merab’s most recent victory came in August against an aging Aldo.
Bottom Line
In addition to the fight history narrative, Yan also has a statistical edge, as evidenced by his advantages in terms of knockouts (8x), considerable striking, and takedown accuracy. Even though he ranks lower than average in submissions and takedowns, his takedown defense of 90% places him among the top competitors in the division.
I like for Yan to grind this one out in what will likely be an ugly decision.
Best Bet: Petr Yan (-220 via DraftKings)
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