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UFC Vegas 71 Yan vs. Dvalishvili: Best Parlay Picks (2023)

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The Theater at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas is playing host to a loaded UFC fight night card. Headlined by Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili, this event promises to bring some much-needed clarity to the bantamweight division. This card picked up the Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann fight that got canceled some weeks ago due to Krylov being ill. Overall, it’s shaping up to be an exciting night of fights. The prelims start at 3 p.m. EST, with the main card following at 6 p.m. EST, both available to watch on ESPN+.

Follow my Twitter here for more picks and predictions on the day of the fights.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Saturday:

UFC 285 Jones vs. Gane: Parlay Picks

2023 total: Down 6 units

Leg 1: Sedriques Dumas moneyline (-215)

Dumas is making his UFC debut after winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. He submitted his opponent via a standing guillotine choke in 47 seconds. It was not a long time to see his other tools, but it showed the dangerous jiu-jitsu he possesses.

His opponent is Josh Fremd, who enters this fight following a loss via guillotine choke against Tresean Gore. He is 0-2 in the UFC and 9-4 overall. Dumas will have a three-inch reach advantage, and Fremd will have a two-inch height advantage. Dumas is a solid striker based on his pre-UFC career and should have the speed advantage over Fremd.

According to the odds, he is more likely to get a knockout than submission, but the latter may be the safest path to victory. Fremd’s takedown defense is 26%, and Dumas should have the grappling advantage if he can secure the takedown. Either way, Dumas has a good matchup for his debut.

Leg 2: Vitor Petrino money line (-105)

Vitor Petrino and Anton Turkalj will open the main card in the light heavyweight division. Petrino is another fighter making his UFC debut after winning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Turkalj is another Contender Series alum but lost his debut on short notice against Jailton Almeida.

Turkalj will have a two-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage over Petrino. Turkalj will likely try to wrestle and wear Petrino down throughout the fight, as Petrino has the striking advantage. Both men do not have a lot of statistics to pull from, but Petrino lands 4.88 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.09. Turkalj lands 1.13 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 1.85 strikes.

Petrino was taken down once in his Contender Series fight but reversed position and gained some control time. Petrino’s most likely method of victory is by knockout, which would likely come after the first round when Turkalj is not as fresh.

Leg 3: Nikita Krylov money line (-170)

Before pulling out of the fight a couple of weeks ago, he was the final leg of the parlay given out that week. The odds have not changed, and the position taken has not changed either. He must be weary of Spann’s power, especially early, but he should have the cardio advantage. The illness that forced him to pull out of the fight may be cause for concern, but he said it was from some food he ate that morning. It was the right call to call off the bout.

The fight will be at a catchweight of 215 pounds because of the short turnaround, and it will also be three rounds. Krylov has more of an advantage in a five-round bout due to his cardio, but Spann can still get gassed in a shorter fight. Spann has not been out of the first round in five consecutive contests. Spann will be the more dangerous fighter early, but Krylov will have more power and stamina later in the fight. Krylov lands 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Spann defends 50% of takedowns. Krylov should use his wrestling early, and it will open his striking later in the fight because Spann will be worried about the takedown. Krylov has more paths to victory, but Spann will test his chin early.

Parlay: +354 on DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The PPV main event starts at 10 p.m. EST on ESPN+.

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