UFC Vegas 74: Longshot Bets, Picks & Predictions (2023)
UFC Vegas 74 gets underway this Saturday at the UFC Apex facility. While this card is certainly not the most loaded of affairs, there are still a couple of great betting angles to attack.
Below, I will walk through my best longshot prop bet to make for this event. This play is 0.4 units, or 0.4% of your betting bankroll.
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UFC Vegas 74: Best Longshot Bet
Here is our top longshot bet for UFC Vegas 74.
Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda
In the co-main event, there is a featherweight bout between the number 15 contender Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda. There is no one that will tell you he is a new man more than Caceres, who has completely turned his career around in 2019.
A very free-speaking fighter who has publicly talked about the highs and lows regarding the mental aspect of fighting for a living, Caceres has repeatedly discussed how he is in a completely different headspace now than he was in 2019. In fact, he claims he is entering the prime of his career despite coming into this scrap at nearly 35 years old.
After a low point in his loss to Kron Gracie just two minutes into the first round, Caceres has shot back up into contention in the 145-pound division. Since that performance, he has won six of his past seven fights, capped off by his most recent spectacular first-round knockout victory over Julian Erosa.
Two of those six victories came via submission, a path to victory he could once again take in this bout. Pineda has had a very underwhelming career in the UFC, going 5-5-1 through 11 fights.
His biggest weakness is his inability to defend against grapplers, posting a takedown defense of just 48%. Therefore, you will not be too shocked to learn that six of his 14 professional losses have come via submission.
Meanwhile, since joining the UFC, Caceres boasts a takedown accuracy of 70%. These fighters are trending in different directions, and if Caceres is to pull off a victory, then his submission prop at over 5/1 is too much value to pass up.
Pick: Alex Caceres via Submission (+510 at BetRivers)
Best of luck!
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Tony Sartori is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Tony, check out his archive and follow him @tony_sartori.