UFC Vegas 75 Vettori vs. Cannonier: Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions (2023)
A couple of top-five middleweight fighters will take center stage on Saturday night as they attempt to move one step closer to another title shot. Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier will headline a UFC Vegas card in the Apex on Saturday night. Arman Tsarukyan also looks to stay active against unranked lightweight contender Joaquim Silva. The prelims start at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN2, and the main card begins at 10 p.m. on ESPN.
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Best UFC Vegas 75 Vettori vs Cannonier Parlay Picks
2023 total: Down 9.44 units
Leg 1: Denys Bondar money line (-130)
Denys Bondar will fight Carlos Hernandez in the prelims in the flyweight division. Bondar lost his UFC debut against Malcolm Gordon in February 2022. Hernandez lost his last fight against Allan Nascimento by submission in January, so both men aim to get back on track. Bondar is 16-4 as a professional, and Hernandez is 8-2, so Bondar has more experience. Hernandez is a skilled striker, with 4.93 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing 4.12 significant strikes per minute. He will have to defend against Bondar's takedowns, however.
Bondar's stats are misleading because he barely has a minute of fight time in the UFC, but he is a good grappler. Hernandez will have his hands full if he cannot stay on his feet. He has defended 66% of takedowns thus far in the UFC and only lands 0.90 takedowns per 15 minutes. Bondar will work to finish no matter where the fight goes, and he can force it to the mat, so he is the side that gets the victory.
Leg 2: Alessandro Costa money line (-275)
Alessandro Costa is taking on Jimmy Flick in another flyweight matchup. It will be the featured bout of the prelims and an exciting fight. Jimmy Flick is always willing to put on a show, sometimes to his detriment. Costa's last fight was a loss against Amir Albazi, who is on his way to a title shot. Flick's previous outing was a knockout loss to Charles Johnson. That was the fifth knockout loss of his career. He must stay away from Costa's power shots in this matchup.
Flick will have a three-inch height advantage and a slight one-inch reach advantage over Costa. He also grapples more, averaging 2.13 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, but Costa has defended 87% of takedowns. Costa has more power in his hands and the power to knock someone out, which is not always the case for a flyweight. Flick must take this to the mat, which he may find troublesome. It is only a matter of time until Costa hurts him on his feet.
Leg 3: Marvin Vettori money line (-125)
The main event of the night is between Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier. Both are in a similar place in their careers. They can beat most of the division but have trouble with Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, which is reasonable. Cannonier has a three-inch reach advantage over Vettori and holds the power advantage. Vettori has never got knocked out, but Cannonier is capable as a former heavyweight. Cannonier lands 4.00 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.86 significant strikes per minute, while Vettori lands a ratio of 4.38 to 3.65 significant strikes per minute.
Vettori probably holds a grappling edge (1.77 takedowns landed per 15 minutes), but he probably will not use it unless Cannonier beats him in the standup. That is unlikely, though, as he is more technical and has experience against powerful fighters. He is tough as nails and is fantastic at keeping a safe range while kickboxing. The most significant factor in this fight is for Vettori to mix in kicks and feints to keep Cannonier from timing a power punch. Vettori gets the nod from the judges in a five-round affair.
Parlay: +334 on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is the best place to play this parlay, and betting one unit or less is the best way to attack it. The main card starts at 10 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
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