UFL Picks & Predictions: Battlehawks vs. Defenders (Sunday)
The Battlehawks and Defenders are meeting for the rubber match, with a trip to the UFL Championship Game on the line. Both teams have had an opportunity to coast into the postseason after wrapping up playoff berths after Week 8. Frankly, I’m not sure if one team will flip the switch back to urgency quicker than the other, but given the roster size in the UFL, both teams had many starters playing the previous two weeks. So, while the XFL Division representatives in the playoffs could sit their starting quarterbacks in the second halves in Week 9 and all of Week 10, rust likely won’t be a factor for the other positions. When combing through the data from the regular season, I settled on one bet being my favorite for this contest. Here are my favorite UFL picks and predictions for Sunday’s playoff game between the Battlehawks and Defenders.
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UFL Picks & Predictions: XFL Championship Round (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. D.C. Defenders UFL Picks & Predictions
The Battlehawks finished the 2025 UFL regular season with a UFL-best 8-2 record. They also had the second-best point differential (+68), with 231 points for (23.1 per game) and 163 against (16.3 per game). They lost 27-15 to D.C. in St. Louis in Week 3, but Manny Wilkins was still playing quarterback for the Battlehawks. St. Louis followed their Week 3 loss with another loss in Week 4, losing 30-15 in Arlington. Those were St. Louis’s only losses in the regular season.
They closed the 2025 regular season with six straight victories, including five straight in Max Duggan’s five starts. The Battlehawks were 3-1 against playoff teams, beating the Panthers 32-27 at home in Week 5, defeating the Stallions 29-28 at home in Week 8 and winning 13-8 in the rain on a field with standing water in D.C. in Week 10, with both teams sitting their starting quarterbacks.
The Battlehawks were also 4-1 at home, with 114 points for (22.8 per game, with a median of 26) and 97 points against (19.4 per game, with a median of 27). St. Louis had some shootouts at home, hence the sizable gap between their average points against allowed and their median. Nevertheless, their victories at home were by 17, five, six and one point.
Digging beyond the numbers, the Battlehawks were darlings in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) film grading. They earned PFF’s highest overall grade, second-highest pass-blocking grade, highest run grade, second-highest run-blocking grade, highest defense grade, highest run-defense grade, second-highest pressure grade and second-highest coverage grade. They’re an outstanding, well-rounded team, statistically and from a film-grading standpoint.
The Defenders went 6-4 in the regular season, losing their final two games of the season. It’s understandable to give them a partial pass for the defeats in Week 9 and Week 10 since they’d already clinched a playoff berth. Nonetheless, they had only a +1 point differential, scoring 225 points (22.5 per game) and allowing 224 (22.4). They were routinely in coin-flip contests, and after opening the year 3-0, went 3-4 the rest of the year.
D.C. was 2-2 against playoff teams with 67 points for (16.8 per game, with a median of 16) and 77 points against (19.3 per game, with a median of 14). The Defenders were also 3-2 on the road, with 131 points for (26.2 per game, with a median of 27) and 134 points against (26.8 per game, with a median of 24).
In addition to their solid-but-unspectacular numbers, D.C.’s grading at PFF was merely OK. They were fifth in PFF’s overall grade, seventh in run grade, sixth in defense grade, fifth in run-defense grade, seventh in tackling grade, seventh in coverage grade and eighth in special teams grade. St. Louis’s variety of strengths gives them multiple avenues to a victory at home, and their excellence on both sides of the ball could result in a lopsided victory. Still, I expect the Defenders to put up a fight, but the host Battlehawks should cover the slight spread of 2.5 points.
Pick: STL -2.5 (-115)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.