UFL Week 10 Odds & Picks: Showboats vs. Stallions (Sunday)
The Showboats sprung one of the UFL’s biggest upsets of the season, beating the Stallions 24-20 in overtime in Birmingham back in Week 5. They’ll attempt to end their non-playoff season on a high note with another upset victory against the Stallions, but Birmingham is tuning up for the playoffs, and J’Mar Smith and other key contributors are starting. The Stallions could pull some of their key starters early, so I don’t have any conviction about wagers involving the game’s spread. However, I’m leaning in one direction for the game’s total. Here are my top Week 10 UFL picks and predictions for Showboats vs. Stallions.
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UFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 10 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Memphis Showboats vs. Birmingham Stallions UFL Picks & Predictions
Despite coming out on the wrong end of an overtime contest against the Showboats in Week 5, the Stallions are 6-3 this year, with 199 points for (22.1 per game) and 158 points against (17.6 per game). Birmingham is 3-2 on the road this year, with 83 points for (20.8 per game, with a median of 22) and 75 points against (18.8 per game, with a median of 17).
The Stallions have, again, with the exception of their overtime loss against the Showboats, handled their business against non-playoff teams, going 4-1 with 113 points (22.6 per game, with a median of 23) and allowing 77 (15.4 per game with a median of 16).
The Stallions have dealt with many injuries and inconsistency at quarterback this year, but J’Mar Smith has provided them with stability and stellar play. They’re 1-1 in Smith’s two starts, with 54 points for (27 per game) and 51 against (25.5 per game). However, those games were against the Battlehawks in St. Louis and the Panthers in Birmingham. Smith also led a 33-25 comeback victory in relief of Case Cookus against the Roughnecks in Week 7.
Among 17 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks this year, Smith is tied for the highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF). Smith is also first in yards per pass attempt (10.0) and first in big-time throw rate (8.1 BTT%) out of the same sample of 17 signal-callers. Head coach Skip Holtz could pull Smith early to avoid risking an injury before the playoffs, but Smith will start.
Memphis’s upset victory against Birmingham is the highlight of their 2-7 season. They’ve scored only 139 points (15.4 per game) and permitted 200 points (22.2 per game). The Showboats haven’t enjoyed home cooking, going 0-4 at home, with 50 points for (12.5 per game, with a median of 12) and 93 against (23.3 per game, with a median of 22.5).
The Showboats’ only win in five games against playoff teams was the overtime victory against the Stallions. They’re 1-4 in five games against playoff teams, scoring 66 points (16.5 per game, with a median of 12) and yielding 109 (21.8 per game, with a median of 20).
Dresser Winn gave the Showboats a spark, beating the Stallions in his first start. Sadly, he was 1-2 in his three starts (Week 5 through Week 7). After beating Birmingham, the Winn-led Showboats lost 21-20 to the Roughnecks and 19-9 to the Battlehawks in Week 6 and Week 7, respectively. The Showboats scored 53 points (17.7 per game, with a median of 20) and allowed 60 (20 per game, with a median of 20) in Winn’s three starts.
Memphis’s scoring steadily declined in Winn’s three starts, going from 24 points to 20 and nine in two subsequent contests. Even with the Showboats going in reverse on offense, their game totals were 44, 41 and 28 points in Winn’s starts.
Circling back to PFF, Winn is PFF’s lowest-graded passer among 17 with at least 40 dropbacks this year. He has a UFL-high 14 turnover-worthy plays and a league-high 9.8% turnover-worthy play rate. Winn’s propensity to put the ball in harm’s way can create short fields for the Stallions and enhance Memphis’s need to play catch-up, both of which could be good for the game’s over. Even with the high likelihood of the Stallions pulling Smith early, these squads should clear the low bar of 39.5 total points.
Pick: Over 39.5 Total Points (-102)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.