UFL Week 2 Picks & Predictions: Renegades vs. Roughnecks (Sunday)
The Arlington Renegades and Houston Roughnecks enter this game after vastly different outcomes in Week 1. The Renegades crushed the defending XFL Division champion Brahmas 33-9, and the Roughnecks were beaten 31-6 by the Battlehawks. Houston has had extra time to lick their wounds after playing last Friday, and Arlington has a rest and preparation disadvantage after playing on Saturday afternoon in Week 1. Can the Roughnecks maximize the rest advantage and make this a competitive contest?
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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 2 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arlington Renegades vs. Houston Roughnecks
The way these teams enter Week 2 extends back to last year. The Renegades started 2024 with six straight losses before winning three of their final four games, beating the Showboats 47-23 in Week 7, losing to the Brahmas 15-20 in Week 8, beating the Battlehawks 36-22 in Week 9 and defeating the Defenders 32-31 in Week 10. The two double-digit victories at the end of last season were at home, and they stayed hot at home with a 33-9 victory against the Brahmas in Week 1 this season.
The King of the Spring, Luis Perez, is still their triggerman. He had the highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF) in 2024 and led the league in passing yards (2,308) and passing touchdowns (18). The spring veteran completed 20 of 25 passes for 164 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception in Week 1. It wasn’t his best showing, but it was adequate.
More importantly, the Renegades ran for 183 yards at 5.9 yards per carry, splashing paydirt four times. They had the second-most rushing yards in Week 1. The Battlehawks had a Week 1-high 273 rushing yards at 6.7 yards per carry, with four rushing touchdowns. If you weren’t paying close attention, the Battlehawks beat the brakes off the Roughnecks in Week 1.
Arlington’s rushing success in Week 1 was shocking, and continuing to run successfully will complement Perez. After Houston’s ineptitude with defending the run in Week 1, Arlington will likely make them prove they can stiffen up against the run before pivoting to Perez’s arm. Fortunately for the Renegades, if the Roughnecks sell out to stop the run, Perez can eviscerate them through the air.
As bad as Houston’s defense was in Week 1, their offense was arguably as bad. They had a Week 1-low 11 first downs. Nolan Henderson and Anthony Brown combined to complete only 12 of 29 passes for 89 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Houston also took three sacks. Teams can’t succeed at any level of football with the degree of quarterbacking incompetence the Gamblers demonstrated in Week 1.
The Curtis Johnson-led Houston franchise (they were the Gamblers in the USFL when he was hired as the head coach for the 2023 season) has been the joke of spring football under his leadership. They went 5-5 in 2023, and it’s been downhill since then. The Roughnecks were 1-9 last year with a UFL-low 158 points for and 233 against. While 10 points might feel like a lot to lay this early in the UFL season, the Roughnecks looked like the same dumpster fire they were last year. The rest and preparation advantage they have is offset by the Renegades hosting the contest. Arlington should steamroll Houston.
Pick: Arlington -10 (-115)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.