UFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Roughnecks vs. Stallions (Saturday)
The Stallions and Roughnecks are coming off narrow victories in Week 3. Birmingham beat Arlington by two points on Friday, and Houston defeated Memphis by one point on Saturday. The defending UFL champion Stallions are 2-1, and the Roughnecks are 1-2 after beating the winless Showboats.
While Birmingham is justifiably favored, the spread is a tick steep. Yet, Houston has a blowout loss in Week 1 on their resume. The Battlehawks beat the Roughnecks 31-6 in the first game of the 2025 UFL season. So, instead of betting on the spread, another wager is the apple of my eye.
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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 4 (Saturday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Roughnecks vs. Birmingham Stallions
The Roughnecks have jostled between Anthony Brown and Nolan Henderson at quarterback, with the former starting the first three games of the season. However, Henderson has overtaken Brown on the depth chart.
Among 11 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks this year, Henderson has the highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF). Henderson isn’t a world-beater, though. He’s completed only 53.1% of his 32 pass attempts for 148 yards (4.6 yards per attempt). The dual-threat quarterback adds value, rumbling for 76 yards at 9.5 yards per carry this season.
Henderson could add a spark to Houston’s offense, but it has a steep climb to being a competent offense. The Roughnecks have scored the fewest points (33) in the UFL this season. I’m not optimistic Henderson will cure all that ails them.
Birmingham’s historically excellent offense has looked like a rudderless ship this season, which head coach Skip Holtz echoed after last week’s victory, when he essentially said he’s unsure what the team’s offensive identity is. The Stallions have scored only 43 points this year.
They’ve earned PFF’s lowest offense grade, lowest passing grade, second-lowest rushing grade, lowest pass-blocking grade, and second-lowest run-blocking grade. Moreover, Matt Corral is only sixth in PFF’s passing grade, and he’s tied for the most turnover-worthy plays (five).
Houston’s and Birmingham’s defenses are better than their offenses. The Stallions have yielded only 39 points this year, and the Roughnecks have coughed up 59. However, Houston rebounded from ceding 31 points to the Battlehawks in Week 1, allowing only 28 in two subsequent games. Through three weeks, Birmingham’s and Houston’s games have exceeded 36.5 points only once, when the Battlehawks and Roughnecks combined for 37 in Week 1. As a result, I don’t expect them to light up the scoreboard this week, making the Under for 36.5 points a compelling bet.
Pick: Under 36.5 Total Points (-110)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.