UFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Showboats vs. Panthers (Friday)
Week 3 of the 2025 UFL season is in the books. Last week, I went 3-1 on my four bets. I had a 1-1 record for the Friday night matchup between the Arlington Renegades and the Birmingham Stallions, with the under of 39.5 points (19) easily hitting. However, the Stallions only won by one point, falling to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Meanwhile, I went 2-0 in Saturday's matchup between the Houston Roughnecks and Memphis Showboats. The under of 35.5 points barely hit, with the game ending 18-17. However, Houston earned the outright victory over Memphis, not needing the free 4.5 points.
However, last week's games are in the books. Now, it's time to move on to Week 4. Let's look at my two favorite bets from Friday night's matchup between the Memphis Showboats and Michigan Panthers.
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UFL Week 4 Picks & Predictions: Showboats vs. Panthers
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Bet #1 - Showboats +8.5 (-115)
Memphis joins the San Antonio Brahmas as the only 0-3 teams in the UFL this season. While bettors shouldn't expect the Showboats to win outright on Friday night, Memphis will make this a close contest. They got blown out in Week 1, losing 26-12 to the Panthers. However, Memphis has been in two close contests the past two weeks, losing by five to the D.C. Defenders in Week 2 and by one last week to the Roughnecks.
While the Panthers got a 26-12 victory over the Showboats in Week 1, they haven't been the same team since opening weekend. They lost to the Birmingham Stallions 21-12 the following week. More importantly, Michigan barely got the 26-23 win over San Antonio last week despite playing a winless team at home. The Panthers needed a last-minute field goal by B.T. Potter to get the win after allowing the Brahmas to outscore them 8-3 in the fourth quarter.
These two teams faced off in Week 1, with the Panthers getting the 14-point win. However, much has changed since opening weekend. The Showboats have been in two close and competitive games over the past two weeks, losing by six total points. Meanwhile, Michigan needed a last-minute field goal to defeat a 0-3 San Antonio team at home last week. While the Panthers should get the win, expect the Showboats to cover the 8.5-point spread.
Bet #2 - Over 35.5 Points (-110)
Unfortunately, Memphis has had one of the worst offenses in the UFL this season. They have averaged 13.7 points per game, the second-fewest in the league. The Showboats scored 12 points in both of their first two games before totaling 17 last week. More importantly, the average points scored in their first three games this year has been 34 points, with 35 or more being scored in two of those outings, including in Week 3.
Meanwhile, Michigan has had one of the top offenses in the UFL this season, averaging the second-most points per game (21.3). The Panthers only scored 12 points in their Week 2 loss. However, they scored 26 points in both their Week 1 and Week 3 victories. More importantly, the average points scored in their first three games this year has been 40 points, with 38 or more being scored in two of those outings, including last week.
While the under has been the play over the first three weeks of the UFL season, bettors should take the over for this week's Friday night matchup. The Showboats have averaged 13.7 points per game this year. Meanwhile, the Panthers have averaged 21.3 points per game. Therefore, these two teams averaged a combined 35 points per game this year. Furthermore, four of the six games these two teams have played have finished with 35 or more points scored.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.