UFL Week 5 Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Roughnecks vs. Brahmas (Sunday)
Week 4 of the 2025 UFL season is in the books. Last week, I went 1-3 on my four bets. I had a 1-1 record for the Friday night matchup between the Memphis Showboats and the Michigan Panthers, with the over of 35.5 points barely hitting (36). However, the Showboats were blown out by 18 points, failing to cover the 8.5-point spread.
Meanwhile, I went 0-2 in Saturday's matchup between the St. Louis Battlehawks and the Arlington Renegades. The Battlehawks got blown out, losing 30-15, crushing my MoneyLine bet. Furthermore, a pick-six thrown by backup quarterback Max Duggan with 33 seconds left ruined my under 39.5 points bet, with the total ending at 45 because of that late touchdown.
However, last week's games are in the books. Now, it's time to move on to Week 5. Let's look at my two favorite bets from Sunday afternoon's matchup between the Houston Roughnecks and San Antonio Brahmas.
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UFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Roughnecks vs. Brahmas
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Bet #1 - Roughnecks +3 (-110)
Houston hasn't had much luck this season. They are one of three teams in the UFL with only one win over the first four weeks. Yet, they have been a competitive team since their Week 1 blowout loss to the St. Louis Battlehawks. Last week, the Roughnecks lost by seven points to the Birmingham Stallions, 23-16. However, they defeated the Memphis Showboats 18-17 in Week 3 and lost by only two points to the Arlington Renegades in Week 2, 11-9.
Last week, the Brahmas pulled off the upset win over the D.C. Defenders, 24-18, handing the last unbeaten team in the UFL their first loss. More importantly, San Antonio got their first victory of the season, joining Houston and Memphis as the only one-win teams in the league. Unfortunately, the Brahmas had been arguably the worst team in the UFL over the previous three weeks, losing by an average of 14.7 points per game.
These teams have been two of the worst in the UFL this year. Yet, I don't understand why San Antonio is a three-point favorite in this game. While last week's upset victory over D.C. was impressive, they have been repeatedly blowout this season. Meanwhile, Houston has been in three consecutive one-score games. While I wouldn't be surprised if they won the game outright, bettors should play it safe and take the Roughnecks plus the three points.
Bet #2 - Under 39.5 Points (-110)
While many teams have had issues consistently putting up points this year, Houston has severely struggled. They have averaged 12.3 points per game over the first four weeks, the lowest average in the UFL. Furthermore, the Roughnecks scored 18 or fewer points in every game, including nine or less twice. Meanwhile, their defense has played well lately. After giving up 31 points in Week 1, Houston has surrendered 17 points per game over the past three weeks.
Meanwhile, San Antonio held D.C. to 18 points in their Week 4 win. Neither team scored in the fourth quarter. More importantly, the Brahmas gave up 28.3 points per game over the first three weeks, surrendering 26 or more in every contest. However, they faced three of the top teams and offenses in the UFL in those matchups. Therefore, don't be surprised if San Antonio sets a new season-low in points allowed against Houston on Sunday.
Offense has been a problem for most teams in the UFL this year. Three teams have failed to score 70 points over the first four weeks. Unfortunately, two of them are playing in this game. The Roughnecks have averaged 13.3 points per game, scoring 18 or fewer in every contest. By comparison, the Brahmas have averaged 16.3 points per game. Bettors should continue to back the under trend. Don't be surprised if both teams fail to score double-digit points.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.