UFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions: Renegades vs. Defenders (Sunday)
Sunday’s matchup between the Renegades and the Defenders is a battle of 3-1 teams, with the winner sitting atop the XFL Division. Arlington has the home-field advantage and the one-day rest advantage this weekend. In addition, the Renegades are coming off a victory, and the Defenders will attempt to bounce back from a loss to the previously winless Brahmas. When scanning the betting offerings, one stands out as the most appealing.
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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 5 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arlington Renegades vs. D.C. Defenders
The Renegades are 3-1, with their only loss in Birmingham in Week 3. The loss would have been a win if the officiating command center hadn’t applied a false start after Matt Corral threw an interception on fourth down, providing the Stallions with another opportunity to convert a fourth down to keep the game alive. Despite the loss, Arlington has the best point differential (+39) in the UFL this season. They have victories by 24, two and 15 points, and their only loss was by two points.
Arlington’s average margin of victory is 13.7 points, with a median of 15 points. All three of their victories were at home, and their only loss was on the road.
Conversely, the Defenders are 3-1, outscoring their opponents by only 18 points. After winning their first three games by seven, five and 12 points, they were beaten by the previously winless Brahmas by six points. This will be only their second contest on the road this year.
Beyond the superior point differential for the Renegades, Arlington also has other statistical advantages over D.C. The hosts have committed fewer penalties (7.0 per game versus 9.5 per game), have more rushing yards per game and carry (107.5 per game and 4.2 per carry compared to 104.5 and 3.4) and have a higher completion percentage (70.1% versus 49.6%). However, the Defenders have more passing yards per game (222.8 versus 169).
Both clubs have a positive turnover differential. The Defenders have nine takeaways and three giveaways, and the Renegades have seven takeaways and four giveaways. D.C. and Arlington are also first and second in the league in sacks, with 11 and 10, respectively.
Even with a UFL-high turnover differential, the Defenders have played tight games. The Renegades have done a better job of winning handily with a more modest turnover differential. Furthermore, Arlington has an advantage at quarterback. Among 13 quarterbacks with at least 20 dropbacks this year, Luis Perez has the highest passing grade at Pro Football Focus (PFF), and Jordan Ta’amu is eighth. Perez also has four big-time throws compared to three turnover-worthy plays, and Ta’amu has five big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Ta’amu is tied for the most turnover-worthy plays this season. Ultimately, I expect Arlington’s home-field advantage, one-day rest advantage and superior signal-caller to allow them to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Pick: Renegades -3.5 (-110)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.