UFL Week 7 Odds & Picks: Stallions vs. Roughnecks (Sunday)
The Stallions are tied for first in the USFL Division at 4-2 with the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Panthers, but the Roughnecks are coming on strong at 3-3. After opening the year with two losses, Houston has won three of their past four, including their last two. They have a one-day rest advantage after playing on Saturday last week, when the Stallions played on Sunday. However, Birmingham has the home-field advantage. The most appealing bet for this game is the spread, but is it laying the 4.5 points with the hosts or taking them with the suddenly hot visitors?
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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 7 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Birmingham Stallions vs. Houston Roughnecks
In Week 5 in 2023, the Roughnecks stunned the back-to-back USFL Champion Stallions, beating them 27-20 in Birmingham. It’s been a one-sided affair since then. The Stallions have won four subsequent contests: 38-15 in Week 9 in Houston in 2023, 32-9 in Houston in Week 5 and 35-28 in Birmingham in Week 8 in 2023 and 23-16 in Houston in Week 4 this year. Birmingham’s average margin of victory and median during the four-game winning streak has been 15 points and they’ve won each of those games by at least seven points.
The team personnel has changed, but the head coaches haven’t. Skip Holtz is more trustworthy than Curtis Johnson. The Stallions aren’t the same dominant team they’ve been in previous championship campaigns. Nevertheless, Birmingham’s point differential of +30 points is the second highest in the UFL this year. Even at 3-3, the Roughnecks have a negative-eight point differential.
Additionally, Birmingham’s offense and defense are better than Houston’s. The Stallions are fourth in total offense (276.8 yards per game) and fifth in scoring offense (18.5 points per game) versus seventh (240.5 yards per game) and sixth (16.2 points per game) for the Roughnecks.
The Stallions have also allowed 271.7 yards per game and 13.7 points per game compared to 296.7 and 17.5 for the Roughnecks. They’re tied for takeaways with 10 each. However, Birmingham has 10 giveaways, and Houston has only five. Despite Houston’s superior turnover ratio, they have a negative point differential, and Birmingham has a better record and excellent point differential, even though they’ve stubbed their toe repeatedly. This is likely a more lopsided game than their respective records suggest, and the Stallions should cover the modest spread of 4.5 points.
Pick: Stallions -4.5 (-108)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.