UFL Week 9 Odds & Picks: Roughnecks vs. Defenders (Sunday)
The last game of Week 9 is a mismatch between the playoff-bound Defenders and the eliminated Roughnecks. St. Louis will host the XFL Division playoff contest, so D.C. could exercise caution and pull their starters early, with an eye on being healthy for their playoff matchup against the Battlehawks on June 8. Nevertheless, UFL players must play their hardest to put out quality tape for prospective NFL employers, so there shouldn’t be a motivation issue for either team. After digging into the numbers, I couldn’t settle on one favorite bet for this contest. Instead, it was a tie, and I’ll offer two enticing UFL picks at the end of this piece.
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UFL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 9 (Sunday)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Houston Roughnecks vs. D.C. Defenders
The Roughnecks are only 3-5 this season, scoring 140 points (17.5 per game) and allowing 168 points (21 per game) this year. They haven’t enjoyed a home field advantage this year, going 1-3 in their home digs. They’ve scored just 61 points at home (15.25 per game, with a median of 17) and coughed up 104 (26 per game, with a median of 26.5).
The Roughnecks might have fooled some people into believing they could make a playoff run, winning three of four games from Week 3 through Week 6. However, Houston merely made the most of a soft spot in the schedule, beating up on the dregs of the league.
Houston is 0-4 against this year’s playoff teams, with 65 points for (16.25 points per game, with a median of 17) and 117 points against (29.25 points per game allowed, with a median of 30.5). They’ve been little more than a speed bump for quality teams.
The Defenders are 6-2 and headed to the playoffs, making them one of the UFL’s quality teams. They’ve scored 196 points this year, an average of 24.5 points per game. They haven’t been stingy, though. D.C. has coughed up 187 points (23.38 per game).
The Defenders have done an excellent job on the road, going 3-1, albeit with a point differential of zero after scoring 110 points (27.5 per game, with a median of 29.5) and allowing 110 (27.5 per game, with a median of 28.5). The Defenders have also bullied bad teams, going 4-1 against non-playoff teams. Against the UFL’s weakest teams, D.C. has scored 137 points (27.4 per game, with a median of 32) and yielded 123 (24.6 per game, with a median of 24). Their margins of victory against the non-playoff teams were five, four, eight and three points, with a six-point loss against the Brahmas mixed in.
The Defenders haven’t beaten the brakes off each bad team, but they’ve handled their business, with two of their four victories against non-playoff teams exceeding their spread of 4.5 points this week. Moreover, coupled with Houston’s ineptitude against playoff teams, D.C. should get the job done and cover their 4.5-point spread. The game should also exceed 45.5 points, even if D.C. must do the bulk of the heavy lifting. They’re also prone to coughing up points, and the Roughnecks should do enough to get the game’s Over home.
Picks: Defenders -4.5 (-110) and Over 45.5 Points (-112)
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.