Under-the-Radar College Football Bets: Week 10 (2019)
It’s a big week on the college football scene as we have a couple of important top-25 matchups. One will definitely determine the College Football Playoff picture while the other could present a non-power conference team as a possible contender. We’re passing on those games, though, and looking at three matchups that are flying under the radar. Here’s what we like:
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Boston College at Syracuse
Odds: Boston College +3
The season has not gone the way that Boston College hoped it would. The Eagles got blown out at home by Kansas and lost close games to both Wake Forest and Louisville. Last weekend, they were crushed by Clemson. That’s why Boston College is an underdog this week, but is Syracuse any better? The Orange got flattened last week by a struggling Florida State team. Further, Syracuse has already lost multiple ACC home games this season. The Orange are 0-4 in ACC games this season. In those four games, they have scored an average of just 13.3 points per game. Boston College has a weak defense, but Syracuse’s weak offense gives the Eagles the exact kind of opponent they should want to play. This game ought to be a pick ‘em, so Boston College getting three points on the road seems like a great opportunity to pounce on a road underdog.
Virginia Tech at Notre Dame
Odds: Notre Dame -18
The Fighting Irish are being questioned after Michigan dealt them a very unexpected blowout. Notre Dame showed none of the toughness that had marked their close game against Georgia in September. Notre Dame looked completely unprepared after a week off. It is hard to explain why the Fighting Irish have fallen off the pace after starting their season strongly, but it is clear that they are not nearly as good as many people thought they were.
Does this mean they will fail to cover a fairly large point spread against the Virginia Tech Hokies? Virginia Tech did beat North Carolina in its most recent ACC game, and the Hokies have clearly improved in the month of October. However, has Virginia Tech improved enough to warrant respect against Notre Dame on the road? Notre Dame beat Virginia by 15 points, 35-20, at home. Virginia is widely regarded as a much better team than Virginia Tech. If Virginia and Virginia Tech played, Virginia would probably be a six- or seven-point favorite. Notre Dame can cover the spread. The ultimate reason for taking Notre Dame is that after being totally embarrassed on national television, the Irish are more likely to play with pride than to sulk through this game. This is a wounded team, and it should come out of the gates angry. If that happens, ND will cover.
Miami at Florida State
Odds: Florida State -3.5
The Miami-Florida State game used to be college football’s most important and exciting rivalry in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Now it is a battle to see if the winner can avoid a losing season. Both teams are 4-4 entering this game, with the winner being likely to get to 6-6 and make a bowl game.
Both teams have endured another rough season, but they both scored crucial wins in Week 9. Does this mean that they are both on the right track, or that they merely had a fortunate game and have not indicated they are ready to turn the corner?
If forced to pick a team in this mysterious game, Florida State is the better choice. The Seminoles were able to score 35 points against Syracuse. Florida State has scored at least 31 points in every home game it has played this year. Miami, on the other hand, has an offense that has scored more than 25 points only one time this year against FBS opponents (Miami scored 63 against an FCS opponent). Miami is 84th of 130 teams in the FBS in average yards per game. Miami is 114th in rushing offense, 129th in third-down conversions, and 128th in red-zone offense.
Florida State’s offense is inconsistent. Miami’s offense is far worse.
Overall 10-11 record on the season
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.