Under the Radar College Football Bets: Week 13 (2021)
We’ve done it. We’ve reached the final week of the 2021 college football regular season. And with Thanksgiving just a couple of days away, I want to first say thank you for reading along all season. It’s been a blast writing this article all season, and while I’ll be back for conference championship week and bowl season, now felt like an appropriate time to say thanks.
Week 12 was once again another strong week. UCF didn’t make it easy, but they managed to cover a lofty spread in the Civil conFLICT. UCLA destroyed USC after a concerning start. And Rutgers and Penn State went under the total. The only blemish was Rutgers didn’t score a single point, failing to cover as big road underdogs.
But nobody’s complaining about a 3-1 week. Let’s end the regular season with a bang!
- Week 12 record: 3-1
- 2021 season record: 27-14
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Eastern Michigan Eagles +8.5 at Central Michigan Chippewas, Total 64
We begin our final column of the regular season with some Black Friday MACtion, as these two teams will square off for the Michigan MAC Trophy. Like the Commander in Chief Trophy exchanged between Army, Air Force, and Navy, this trophy goes to the Michigan MAC program with the best head-to-head record against each other.
Perhaps no team in the country has enjoyed playing close conference games than the Eagles. Six of their seven MAC games have been decided by one possession, and this one feels no different.
The Chippewas can put some serious points on the board, and rank inside the top 60 in scoring, rushing, and passing offense. The problem is Central Michigan’s defense can’t stop anyone. The Chips have surrendered at least 27 points in all but two conference games this year. They’re particularly terrible against the pass, where they’re allowing 270.4 yards per game.
That should be all Eastern Michigan’s offense needs to keep things within striking distance. The Eagles rank 34th in scoring offense and average 267.5 yards per game through the air.
Eastern Michigan’s defense probably won’t offer up much resistance between the 20s. But Central Michigan’s struggles within the red zone could prove costly. The Chippewas have scored a touchdown on just 32 of their 45 red zone trips this season. This game will come down to whether Eastern Michigan can hold Central Michigan to field goals once the field tightens up.
I’m trusting Eastern Michigan to play another competitive game as they aspire for their first Michigan MAC Trophy since 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some fireworks either.
The pick: Eastern Michigan +8.5, play down to +7, lean over 64
Miami Hurricanes -21 at Duke Blue Devils Total 68.5
Fading Duke is a practice we should’ve embraced weeks ago. The Blue Devils haven’t won a game since September and have been getting demolished for the last month and a half. They have failed to cover their last five games, all of which they’ve closed as double-digit underdogs. Even worse, they’ve been outscored 48-0, 45-7, 54-29, 48-17, and most recently 62-22.
It appears the Blue Devils would prefer to just get in the stands to root on the men’s basketball team. Meanwhile, Miami has closed the year strong as Manny Diaz fights to keep his job, winning four of their last five.
Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has thrown for 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions for the Canes over his last five games. And he’ll get to face a Duke secondary that’s giving up the third-most passing yards per game in the country, ahead of just New Mexico State and Michigan State.
The Hurricanes haven’t quit on their season, while the Blue Devils have clearly quit on theirs. I expect Miami to end the regular season on a high note and prop up their bowl position.
Tulane Green Wave +6 at Memphis Tigers, Total 57.5
One of my favorite motivational spots to target late in the season is teams fighting for bowl eligibility. And that’s exactly the spot the Memphis Tigers are in as they sit at 5-6. Tulane, meanwhile, is nowhere near bowl eligibility, as they sit at 2-9 on the year. That really makes you wonder how they lost to Oklahoma by only five points.
The handicap here is Memphis’ passing game against Tulane’s pass defense. The Tigers rank 18th in the country averaging 295 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Green Wave haven’t offered much resistance through the air, ranking 111th in pass defense.
Expect a fired-up Memphis team to come firing out of the gates at home and earn bowl eligibility rather easily.
The pick: Memphis -6, play up to -6.5
West Virginia Mountaineers -15.5 at Kansas Jayhawks, Total 54.5
Are oddsmakers not giving Kansas enough credit? Yes, that’s a sentence I just wrote in 2021. But as someone who worked at 540 ESPN Milwaukee during Lance Leipold’s dominant tenure at University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, I can attest that this guy knows what he’s doing. And he might actually be the guy who can turn Kansas around.
The Jayhawks have shown signs of a turnaround recently, first beating Texas on the road before coming close against TCU last week. Kansas also had Oklahoma on the ropes earlier in the year.
Fortunately for the Jayhawks, this isn’t a bad matchup against the Mountaineers, who are desperate for a win to qualify for a bowl game. Kansas’ gigantic flaw is its run defense, which ranks second to last in the country. But the Mountaineers struggle to run the ball and average 116 yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry.
West Virginia’s defense ranks inside the top 51 in rush and pass defense, but its offense isn’t explosive enough to blow an improving Jayhawks defense out. The Mountaineers may win this game by a couple of touchdowns, as they’re still the superior team. But there are no problems with a 14-point win in this case.
The pick: Kansas +15.5, play to +14.5
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.