Under-the-Radar College Football Bets: Week 15 (2019)
It’s Championship Week, and while most of the attention will be paid to the SEC Championship and the Big Ten Championship, there are a number of games flying under the radar. Here are the other games which deserve attention.
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Louisiana-Lafayette at Appalachian State
Odds: Appalachian State -6.5 at PointsBet
This is a rematch of a game played in October where Appalachian State won, 17-7. Since then, both teams’ offenses have played at a much higher level, but one thing remains: Appalachian State has beaten every team in the Sun Belt Conference each of the last two seasons except for one, and Louisiana-Lafayette is not that team. Georgia Southern is the only team to beat Appalachian State in the last 17 Sun Belt Conference football games over the past two seasons. Appalachian State went 8-1 last year in the league – 7-1 in the regular season and then winning the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Mountaineers went 7-1 in this year’s regular season.
As in 2018, Georgia Southern was the only Sun Belt team to beat App State in 2019. Last year, App State beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 11 points, 30-19, in the Sun Belt title game. History is repeating itself a lot in the Sun Belt. If history repeats itself on Saturday, App State should win by double digits. That would cover this spread.
Miami-Ohio vs. Central Michigan
Odds: Central Michigan -7 at PointsBet
This is not a rematch of a regular-season game, unlike the other two games being mentioned here. Central Michigan is certainly playing better, having scored at least 38 points in six of its last seven games. However, if you study the history of the Mid-American Conference Championship Game, you know that underdogs have an excellent record against the spread and have sometimes won outright. Underdogs have won the last three MAC title games against the spread and eight of the last 11 ATS. In the last 11 MAC title games, the underdog has won the game outright four times. The MAC is a wacky conference, and that bodes well for Miami-Ohio in Detroit.
Hawaii at Boise State
Odds: Boise State -13.5 at PointsBet
This is a rematch of a regular-season game where Boise State beat Hawaii 59-37. Hawaii might reduce one touchdown from that 22-point spread but that would still keep Boise State at 15 points, able to cover the spread. Hawaii is a warm-weather team going to a cold-weather site, Boise, to play in December. That should be a brutal set of conditions for Hawaii, which will find it hard to deal with the environment, not just a Boise State team which was comprehensively better the first time these teams played. Boise State should be able to win by a hefty margin once again and cover the spread in the Mountain West Championship Game this weekend.
Overall 15-21 record on the season
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.