Upset Alert: Teams to Fade From the Midwest Region (March Madness)
You know we got you covered here at BettingPros with all the up-to-date information and statistical data for this upcoming tournament. Make sure to check out my Cinderella Guide, along with the bracket optimizer.
Now I'm back to write about different teams to be on high alert for an upset. There is an art to picking an upset, and it really goes beyond just who is going to be beaten in the first round. For these rounds of articles, I will be covering teams to fade in all four regions. I will include three teams for each region: a chalky upset pick, a common choice, and a potential shocker.
Here are teams to be wary of in the Midwest region.
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Chalky Upset Pick: Clemson
I know, I know, Clemson is a seven-seed, so it really isn't that big of an upset if Rutgers beats them. Either way, I am avoiding this Clemson team like the plague. I fill out almost 100 different brackets every year just to mix and match different outcomes. I don't think I will have a single bracket with Clemson making it past the first weekend for this year.
The Tigers are ranked 42nd in KenPom, right around Wichita State and UCLA, so I see their seven-seed as an aggressive overrank. Their last win over a KenPom top-50 team was February 12th, and they fell to 132nd ranked Miami in the ACC tournament. Clemson has seriously cooled off after a hot start to the season, and I don't see them as good picks to make it anywhere past the second round.
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The Potential Shocker – West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
As you can see, I skipped over the "common choice" section for this region. Syracuse might be popular to beat SDSU, but I don't see much validity to that, and it mostly seems like people just recognize Syracuse as a big program and are choosing them rather than anything else.
You can argue for Oregon State over Tennessee, but I see Tennessee as one of the more underrated teams in the tournament. The Vols have serious championship aspirations but with a tough road ahead, and it's not as if they are a popular choice.
So let me cover two potential shockers: West Virginia in the first round and Oklahoma State before the end of the first weekend.
Oklahoma State has taken the nation by storm after finishing the season 8-2, including a win over Baylor. Cade Cunningham might be the best player in the nation, and he has seriously elevated the role players around him. So now that they've built this hype, it's the perfect time to pick them to get upset by Liberty in the first round, right?
Liberty is a dangerous team, and Oklahoma State might just have the hardest path out of any team in the bracket. For the Pokes, I’d either advise having them lose early or make it to the Final Four and beyond. Once they get on a roll, they are like a well-oiled machine, and the potential matchup they could have with Illinois might just be the best game of the season.
West Virginia is a team that seems to forget how to win sometimes. Bob Huggins has been there forever, but they haven't made it past the Sweet 16 since 2010, and they notoriously lost to Steven F. Austin as a 3-seed just a few tournaments ago.
While this Mountaineer team is different from previous ones, I still don't see them as a championship, or even Final Four, caliber team. They are undeserving of the 3-seed, and I expect them to have a relatively early exit this tournament.
Check out more Upset Alerts for March Madness
- Teams to Fade From the East Region
- Teams to Fade From the West Region
- Teams to Fade From the South Region
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.