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Upset Alert: Teams to Fade From the West Region (March Madness)

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You know we got you covered here at BettingPros with all the up-to-date information and statistical data for this upcoming tournament. Make sure to check out my Cinderella Guide, along with the bracket optimizer.

Now I’m back to write about different teams to be on high alert for an upset. There is an art to picking an upset, and it really goes beyond just who is going to be beaten in the first round. For these rounds of articles, I will be covering teams to fade in all four regions. I will include three teams for each region: a chalky upset pick, a common choice, and a potential shocker.

Here are teams to be wary of in the West region.

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Chalky Upset Pick – Creighton

The Blue Jays are becoming such a popular upset pick that it is almost contrarian to pick them to advance past the first weekend. But I can’t say I disagree. Ever since Greg McDermott was suspended for his comments, this team hasn’t exactly been the same. They scraped by UConn in the conference tournament, then got crushed by Georgetown. 

Creighton has a fun offense to watch, and when they’re playing on all cylinders, they’re tough to stop. I like them so much as an upset candidate because even if they do make it to the Sweet 16, it’s going to be a date with Gonzaga. Their ceiling is limited, so choosing them as an upset won’t make you lose out on any points down the road. 

Common Choice – Virginia

After losing three of their final six games, the Cavaliers are not playing their best basketball right now. If you read my Cinderella Guide, you’d know how big I am on this Ohio team. Earlier this year, they competed with Illinois to the buzzer and have been on my radar since.

Again, a big reason I like the choice of picking Virginia to lose early is that they are destined to face off against Gonzaga if they even make it that far. The Bulldogs have already crushed Virginia this year, and I wouldn’t expect anything different the second time around. I truly see a UCSB vs. Ohio second-round matchup as a likely outcome. Virginia’s slow playstyle can allow teams to stay close, and if the Cavaliers start sluggish, it’s difficult for them to make up ground.

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The Potential Shocker – Iowa

If you have done any research on past tournaments, you’ll find that teams who get upset early usually either rank sub-50 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Before you go looking, Iowa is right at 50 for defense.

What this means is that they depend too much on their offense to win games. While most of the time this team is a juggernaut with the ball, they have shown tendencies of being beaten in the past. Oregon is a talented team that I can see taking them down, or USC if not them. The Hawkeyes have one of the largest ranges of outcomes in the tourney, as they really good go far. At the same time, exiting before the second weekend is very much within the realm of possibilities.

Check out more Upset Alerts for March Madness

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.