USFL Week 5 Betting Odds, Previews, Picks (2022)
Unfortunately, after splitting the top picks last week, they remain deadlocked for the year. However, with three top picks this week, the scales will tilt one way or the other, assuming there isn’t a push.
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Top Bets
New Orleans Breakers -2.0 Points (-110)
Usually, when a team turns the ball over four times and fails to force a turnover, they lose. However, the Breakers merely made life more difficult in their 23-16 win in Week 4. New Orleans had 523 yards and held the Gamblers to 155. They could have won convincingly had they done a better job taking care of the football.
The Breakers are 3-1 after last week’s win. Further, according to FOX Sports, they have had the largest discrepancy in points for (93) and against (58). The Breakers also have an above-average offense and defense in EPA/play, per Anthony Reinhard.
Finally, the matchup is terrible stylistically for the run-heavy Generals. According to Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, the Generals have passed at a league-low 44.6% rate in neutral situations. They’ll have difficulty finding room on the ground against the Breakers, as Pro Football Focus has graded New Orleans first in run defense. The Breakers should be positioned well to earn a win when they force the Generals out of their comfort zone on offense.
Philadelphia Stars +6.5 Points (-110)
The Stars have a challenging matchup against the undefeated Stallions. However, a 6.5-point spread is too large. The Stallions have won only one of their four games by more than 6.5 points, beating the Breakers 22-13 in Week 3. They’ve won their other three games by margins of four, five, and six points.
Meanwhile, the 2-2 Stars have lost only one game by more than 6.5 points, losing to the Generals 24-16 in Week 3. But, of course, they also lost their starting quarterback, Bryan Scott, to an injury in that contest.
Case Cookus has acquitted himself well in relief of Scott and could be better as he gets more reps as the starter. Additionally, Philadelphia’s pass-happy approach gives them an avenue to backdooring a cover even if they are in a hole.
Pittsburgh Maulers +5.5 Points (-110)
The Maulers are the last winless team. However, the Gamblers aren’t good enough to lay 5.5 points. Houston is 1-3, and they have a negative point differential, scoring 87 and yielding 95. So yes, the Maulers have been beaten by more than 5.5 points in all of their games. However, the Gamblers have lost three straight after winning by five in their season opener.
Houston’s losing record has been remarkable since they lead the league in turnover ratio, forcing six more than they’ve given away. They’re also coming off a futile offensive showing discussed above, totaling a pathetic 155 total yards on offense in Week 4. The Maulers might not get over the hump this week, but the Gamblers are unlikely to demolish them.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.