Navigate

Valero Texas Open Betting Guide (PGA)

by |

Billy Horschel (90/1) is officially back in the top-20 in the OWGR after taking down the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in Austin, Texas. After grinding through seven matches from Wednesday to Sunday, Horschel edged out Scottie Scheffler for the trophy. All it took was a single birdie in the final match for him to secure the win, as Scheffler didn’t have his best stuff in the final grouping.

Scheffler (45/1) was written up in last week’s article and almost got the job done in his home state in front of friends and family. In the other PGA event of the week, Joel Dahmen (50/1) won his first career title at the Corales Puntacana Resort and Club Championship.

The PGA Tour remains in the Lone Star state as TPC San Antonio (Oaks) will play host to the Valero Texas Open. Lodged in between a WGC and the Masters next week, we won’t be seeing the strongest of fields tee it up. The top-65 with ties in this 144 man-field will advance to the weekend for the $7.7 million purse and a chance of 500 FedEx Cup points.

With Dustin Johnson withdrawing from this event early in the week, the field took a major hit. Tony Finau (+1500), Scottie Scheffler (+1500), Jordan Spieth (+1600), defending champion Corey Conners (+2000), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2100) round out the top-five betting favorites. In 2019, Conners went from a Monday qualifier to champion of the event and punched his ticket into the Masters.  This is the final opportunity for someone to win a Tour event and make their way to Augusta National for the most anticipated event of 2021.

Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>

Previous Winners

  • 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
  • 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
  • 2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
  • 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
  • 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

Course Preview

Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will play as a Par 72 and measures at a respectable 7,435 yards. The name of the game at this course is to hit as many fairways as possible — the rough is very penal, and there are many hazards in play. As per any course in Texas, the wind always becomes a factor, and it should play both firm and fast. The track features undulating, multi-tiered Bermuda greens. As a result, I will target supreme ball-strikers with strong iron play.

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
  • Greens In Regulation Percentage
  • Putting on Bermuda Greens

Outright Betting Picks

Jordan Spieth (+1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
It would be fitting for Spieth to return to the winner’s circle for the first time since 2017 in his home state of Texas. The 27-year-old is playing some excellent golf with finishes of T3 (Pebble Beach), T4 (Arnold Palmer), and T9 (WGC-Matchplay) in his last five appearances. He is hungry for a win, and I really like his chances in a weaker field and at a course where he has already found success. Spieth finished second here in 2015 and tenth in 2014. In my rolling stats model, Spieth ranks top five in tee-to-green, approach, and GIR.

Abraham Ancer (+2200 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ancer has been putting together a tremendous 2021 campaign. He already has eight top-25 finishes in just 13 events. Though his ball-striking and approach play have both been superb, his putting hasn’t been up to par. Ancer ranks 111th in strokes gained: putting this year, which is uncharacteristic for a guy who ranked 41st in this department in 2020. The 30-year-old is the second most accurate driver on Tour this season, and that will come in handy on these tight fairways. We saw the poor-putting Corey Conners break through for his first win at this event last year, so could it be Ancer this time around?

Long-Shot Betting Picks

Chris Kirk (+4500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kirk has rediscovered his form and is trending toward a win over the last few months. Kirk has three top-25 finishes in his last four events, including an eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has succeeded in Texas before, finishing T8 at this event in both 2015 and 2018.

Matt Kuchar (+5500 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The nine-time PGA Tour winner seems to have found some form after an impressive week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Kuchar finished third and had some big wins over the likes of Jordan Spieth, Brian Harman, and Victor Perez. The 42-year-old has fared well at this event, with a T7 in 2019 and two other top-25s. He is worth the flier at a solid price.

Other Betting Picks

Charley Hoffman: Top-10 Finish (+335 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Hoffman has really heated up over his last five events, with high finishes of T7 (Pebble Beach), T10 (Arnold Palmer Invitational), and T17 (Players Championship). According to DataGolf, Hoffman has the second-best course history at this event. He has won before (2016) and finished runner-up to Corey Conners last year. His recent form and course history are simply too good to turn down here.

Brendan Steele: Top-10 Finish (+400 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Another great number here for one of the game’s best ball-strikers who has been successful at this event. Steele won here a decade ago (2011) and has since had high finishes of T4 and T8. The recent form has been tremendous, with a T3 at the Honda Classic and a T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March.

Event Plays

Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

Nic Turner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Nic, check out his archive and follow him @sportzbandit.