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Vikings vs. Bengals: NFL Week 15 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets

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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Vikings vs. Bengals.

NFL Betting Primer: Vikings vs. Bengals

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs (79%). They have also covered the spread in six of their last 8 games (pushed last week). Minnesota has consistently met and exceeded expectations of the market while playing backup QBs this season. They also play every opponent extremely close every single week. The Vikings' average scoring margin is +1.8 with all but one of their 13 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

And even with Josh Dobbs getting benched last week for Nick Mullens, the team still willed its way to a victory because of their elite defense.

Minnesota's defense has been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt, despite all the issues they have had on the offensive side of the ball. No. 6 in total DVOA.

Simply put, the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And they will potentially get back WR Justin Jefferson, who will provide a major offensive boost for Mullens starting under center.

Still, the Vikings offense will run into its fair share of issues based on a plethora of offensive injuries (not named Jefferson) they are dealing with Brian O'Neil, Dalton Risner, Ed Ingram and Alexander Mattison.

Still, the biggest mismatch is that the Bengals’ defense is horrible and they cannot stop the run. 24th in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in run defense DVOA.  Cincy's defense has been horrible preventing explosive plays - 31st in yards per play faced. The Bengals defense also ranks 28th on third downs and 15th in the red zone.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so initially, I was fine catching on 3.5 points on the road. The Vikings have won five of their last six road games.

Meanwhile, Jake Browning is following in the footsteps of a lot of plucky backup QBs we have seen this season. They start hot for a couple of games without expectations in favorable defensive matchups. But as more tape is revealed, defensive coordinators devise ways to stop these backup QBs from sustaining success.

Minnesota's defense is going to be BY FAR the toughest task for Browning after he's taken on the horrible Jaguars/Colts defenses in back-to-back weeks. The Vikings have allowed the 3rd-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the last four weeks. It's been Week 5 since they allowed a QB to score 16-plus fantasy points against them. Also, half of the QBs they have faced have finished under their passing yardage props over the last 10 games.

Considering I'd argue that Mullens could benefit the most from his matchup without many expectations, I lean much more on the Vikings’ side in this spot. He is more of a Kirk Cousins passer, which means he should be able to slide seamlessly into the starting lineup with his experience in the Kevin O'Connell offensive system. It's no coincidence that Mullen's passing yards prop opened at 224.5 passing yards - which seems high for a backup QB. The passing yardage has gone OVER for 8 of the last 10 QBs to face the Bengals this season.

The market opened Bengals 5-point favorites and has settled at -3.5 despite Mullens drawing the start. I took the Bengals early in the week at -3.5 - thinking the line would move further in their favor, but I was incorrect. I feel less great about the Bengals winning by an FG+, hence my pivot to the Vikings at +3.5 (or just waiting for a better number on Minnesota.)

As for the total. This is my preferred way to bet this game with it likely going down to the wire - per usual of Vikings games.

Four of the Bengals’ last five games have gone OVER the total points line. 5 of their last 8 games have hit the over. Their last six of seven games have all surpassed 41.5 points.

But the Vikings are 10-3 toward the under this season. Their defense has limited their opponents and has been the reason they have been LIVE in every single game this season. They are not trying to score 30-plus points every week and acknowledge they don't score that much to win.

Combining the Vikings' conservative approach and the Bengals’ offense in a tough spot - Minnesota allows the FEWEST explosive plays per game - this is an easy under game at 39.5 points.

I LOVE targeting the tough rushing matchup for the Bengals in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Just two RBs they have faced this season have gone for 55 yards or more.

As Joe Mixon continues to cede touches to rookie Chase Brown, the under on his rushing yards prop is the only way to go in this spot. His number opened at 64.5 rushing yards and has been bet down to 56.5 rushing yards. Take the under on his rushing, but the over on his receiving yards at 22.5. Gone over in four straight games and 7 of his last 9.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson was the top receiver, catching 5 passes for 53 yards from 8 targets in Week 14. Mullens heavily targeted Hockenson and Jalen Nailor when he first entered the game. Nailor will miss this game with a concussion, and Jefferson's status is still TBD. Just bet the overs on tight ends playing the Bengals. They have allowed the most receptions per game to tight ends (6.8) this season.

My Picks

  • Under 39.5
  • Vikings +3.5

My Props

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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