Vikings vs. Falcons: NFL Week 9 Odds, Picks & Player Prop Bets
I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Vikings vs. Falcons.
NFL Betting Primer: Vikings vs. Falcons
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Each of the Vikings’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. And that was with Kirk Cousins as the team's starting quarterback. And now they will be starting rookie Jaren Hall in the wake of Cousins tearing his Achilles on the road where Minnesota's offense has underperformed even with a healthy Captain Kirk at the helm of the offense.
Meanwhile, the Falcons under Desmond Ridder play substantially better at home than on the road. And I'd expect similar if not better output with Taylor Heinicke drawing the start in Week 9. Heinicke is one of the league's better backup QBs and started 9 games last season.
5-3-1 against the spread, and 5-3-1 straight up. 2 games they didn't win, or cover came against their division rival Giants.
To further build the case for the Falcons over the Vikings in Week 9, we must also recognize the difference between how these two teams play in one-possession/score games. Minnesota ran Supernova Hot in this category last season and has regressed negatively in 2023. The Falcons have been the opposite, running poorly in one-score games last year, while thriving in that metric in 2023. Ergo, the math suggests any one-score game here should be won by the Falcons.
The Falcons’ defense has not been great in recent weeks, and losing Grady Jarrett isn't going to help them. And although I feel strongly about Atlanta winning the game versus a rookie QB, it might not be easy. The Falcons are on a four-game streak of failing to cover the spread in games they are favored in.
Atlanta is 6-2 toward the under this season, while Minnesota is 7-1 toward the under. Think the under might just be the move to make. And although Heinicke may not be viewed as a consensus upgrade at quarterback is an upgrade - laying 4.5 points with Desmond Ridder felt gross - Atlanta at home is a spot where I feel much better betting on Dirty Birds with a more capable QB under center.
The Falcons' average margin of victory this season is 5 points, so give me the Falcons with a 5-point win in Week 9. But if this number goes to 6/6.5, I am moving firmly away and would just settle on the Falcons ML (-205).
As for props, I am going to buy the discount on T.J. Hockenson. His receptions prop is at 4.5 receptions with the downgrade at QB. However, this number Hockenson goes over in his SLEEP. Over in 7/8 games this season. Only went under this number twice last year as a member of the Vikings.
Considering how bad the Falcons have been versus tight ends – 5th-most catches allowed per game – and Hockenson’s elite target share without Justin Jefferson the last four weeks (23% target share), I think he can still get over this number with short targets from Hall. On 4 pass attempts last week, Hall targeted Hockenson twice (two also went to K.J. Osborn).
My Picks:
- Falcons -4.5
- Under 37.5
My Props:
- T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 receptions (-145 BetMGM)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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