Vrbo Citrus Bowl & Allstate Sugar Bowl Betting Guide (2019)
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The start of the new year brings four of the best matchups thus far this bowl season and includes some of the most prestigious programs in college football. Starting off at 1:00 PM EST with the Citrus Bowl featuring Michigan and Alabama and the Outback Bowl featuring Minnesota and Auburn, the day rounds into form at 5:00 PM EST with the Rose Bowl featuring Wisconsin and Oregon. Two College Football Playoff hopefuls round out the day when Baylor takes on Georgia in the All-State Sugar Bowl at 8:45 PM EST. Let’s take a deeper look at two games in which I’ve identified an edge.
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Vrbo Citrus Bowl – Orlando, FL
Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5, O/U 58.5), 1:00 PM EST (via PointsBet)
Two goliaths of the college football world will face off on New Years Day when the 14th-ranked Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide in Orlando. While both teams had College Football Playoff aspirations to start the season, both should still be motivated in this one playing in the national spotlight and in front of the top recruits in the country. For the Crimson Tide, quarterback Mac Jones will make his third start since the season-ending injury to Tua Tagovailoa that shook this program to its core on the way to a 45-48 loss to its arch-nemesis Auburn to close out the regular season. In his two starts since taking control of the offense, Jones has thrown for 610 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions, looking poised and in control for long stretches of both games. For Michigan, the seat continues to get warm under head coach Jim Harbaugh, who is on his fourth season at Michigan with zero Big Ten titles or appearances in the College Football Playoff. In their eight games against Big Ten foes since 2010, Alabama is 7-1, including a 41-14 rout of this Michigan team in 2012 in the Advocare Classic Bowl. While both programs will be without key players sitting out in preparation for April’s NFL Draft, Alabama received a big boost last week in the announcement of starting wide receiver Jerry Jeudy expecting to play. The All-SEC first-team wide out caught 71 passes this season for 959 yards and nine touchdowns, and I think makes the difference in this one down the stretch in what I expect to be a high-scoring affair.
Allstate Sugar Bowl – New Orleans, LA
Baylor Bears vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-5.5, O/U 41.5), 8:45 PM EST (via PointsBet)
The 85th annual Sugar Bowl will get underway in prime time New Year’s Day as the seventh-ranked Baylor Bears take on the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs. For the Bulldogs, a loss in this one could make head coach Kirby Smart’s seat exponentially hotter after losing in the SEC championship game for the second season in a row, this time in demoralizing fashion giving up 37 points and getting routed by LSU. This will mark the second year in a row Georgia has played in the Sugar Bowl, last season coming out with a dud in a pitiful, unmotivated performance against Texas which resulted in a 21-28 defeat. The challenge will get even steeper this season, as the Bulldogs will be without two of their starting offensive lineman in Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson who are sitting this one out in preparation for the NFL Draft in April. Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm, who largely regressed this season, will also be without two of his top targets in Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock who are sidelined with injuries. For Baylor, this will likely be the program’s final game with head coach Matt Rhule who is likely heading for the NFL after turning around a Baylor program in just three short years. Since opening up as over a touchdown favorite, a ton of money has come in against the Bulldogs, and for good reason. This is very much a program who is CFP or bust and their players tend to perform accordingly. I like Baylor to be the more motivated side and to send out Rhule with an outright victory.
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TJ Perun is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @JohnnyCovers.