Warriors vs. Mavericks: NBA Game 3 Betting Picks for Sunday, May 22 (2022)
The Warriors and Mavericks head back to Dallas for a crucial Game 3. With the Mavericks down in an 0-2 hole, they’ll need to win if they want to have a shot at making the finals; no NBA teams have ever come back from an 0-3 hole.
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1. Mavericks -2.5 | -115 (.5u) at BetMGM
2. Mavericks 1Q -1.5 | -120 (.5u) at BetMGM
The Mavericks are down 0-2 and will be playing for their playoff lives tonight. As only 2.5-point favorites, they don’t have to win by all the much to cover, either. The historical trends for teams stuck in a 0-2 hole are promising, too-as Action Network’s Raheem Palmer notes, those teams have gone 36-12-1 ATS since the 2015-16 season.
That means I expect a hot start from Dallas. And since the Warriors often get out to slow starts, I’m willing to split a unit between the full-game spread and the first-quarter spread. Golden State lost the opening frame of Game 2 by seven points. While the Warriors did take the opening frame in Game 1, they went 1-5 in the first quarters of their series against the Grizzlies. Dallas has been a great first-quarter team this year, too-their +1.5 first-quarter margin ranks ninth.
The Dallas Mavericks have been one of the best teams against the spread this year. They are 56-39-2 ATS, which ranks third. Their 28-17-2 ATS record at home ranks second. Further, the Golden State Warriors have struggled away from home. They are 19-25-2 ATS on the road, which ranks fifth worst.
3. PPD: Spencer Dinwiddie/Dallas to Win | +160 (.5u) at FanDuel Sportsbook
We’ll wrap today’s card up with a plus-money player performance double. While I expect big things from Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson tonight, Dinwiddie has been a viable scoring option off the bench. He averaged 15.8 points per game in the regular season with the Mavericks while shooting 49.8% from the floor and 40.4% from beyond the arc.
Although Dinwiddie has struggled in the playoffs, he still tends to outscore this line. He has averaged 12.9 points per game in the postseason and has gone over this number in nine of 15 games, including a 17-point performance in Game 1 of this series. He did all of his damage in just 23.5 minutes of action, too.
Further, Dinwiddie’s playoff struggles haven’t often lasted between games. He scored single-digit points in six contests, but he only posted repeat single-digit performances once. With his four-point showing in Game 2, I’m betting on a bounce-back night from the 29-year-old guard.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.