Week 10 NFL Picks Against the Spread & Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Nov 08, 2019

With six teams on bye, Week 10 only features 12 more games for us to bet on. Three of these games feature double-digit point spreads, which always adds the drama of a backdoor cover with a random score in garbage time. Week 10 also features the return of MVP Patrick Mahomes, while the return of star wide receiver A.J. Green will be delayed with yet another setback.

Much like Mahomes, letâ€™s return to form this week a bounce-back from one of the more frustrating betting weeks in the NFL among many, myself included. Letâ€™s take a look at five of the best bets in this shorter NFL Week 10 slate coming up on Sunday.

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New York Giants (-3) at New York Jets

While neither team has been good this season, there is pretty much no signs of life on this Jets team, besides Adam Gaseâ€™s crazy eyes. However, the Giants have had moments of looking good, even getting out to a lead over the Cowboys last week before getting cursed by the black cat. With this game featuring two bad defenses, it comes down to the offenses to determine the winner of this MetLife matchup. The Giants will be without Evan Engram at tight end, but with Rhett Ellison getting the start, they get a much better run blocker on the field. This should allow Saquon Barkley to get going early, and if he is running the ball effectively, the Jets do not have much of a chance to stop the rest of this offense, with Daniel Jones and Golden Tate improving their chemistry every time they step on the field together. This Jets defense simply cannot do anything without C.J. Mosley at linebacker, and Daniel Jones looks in position to become Danny Dimes again in this matchup. Offensively for the Jets, the offensive line is horrendous, which has led to no running game and Sam Darnold taking too many hits.

Pick: Giants -3

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Rams coming off the bye is scary, even with their struggles this season. They have taken care of business in their last two games, beating two terrible teams. The Steelers, however, have been gifted their past two wins. Pittsburghâ€™s offense is not good, with Mason Rudolph averaging just 4.3 air yards per completion. Everything is happening near the line of scrimmage, with the coaching staff not trusting the inexperienced quarterback to throw deep. They do not have a running game, with James Conner expected to still be out. Meanwhile, their defense allowed 4.8 yards per rush last week and let Brian Hoyer throw for three touchdowns, finishing with a 105.9 QB rating. The Rams know how to play without Brandin Cooks, so that is not a huge factor here.

At the end of the day, I trust Sean McVay to develop a game plan in two weeks that can beat Mason Rudolph by more than a field goal. The Rams have also covered the spread in all four road games this season.

Pick: Rams -3.5

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)

The 6-2 Bills are three-point underdogs against the 2-6 Browns, which says a lot about how the market views Buffalo. Before you freak out about the struggling Browns facing an elite Bills defense, they may not be as elite as you thought. Buffalo ranks 30th in the league in run defense DVOA and they just gave up 6.0 yards per carry to Adrian Peterson and 5.3 the game before to Philly. Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield may stink, but Nick Chubb certainly does not. Oh, and Kareem Hunt returns this week and is expected to have a role. While they may not put Hunt in at quarterback and do a bargain version of the Ravens offense as I hope for, Cleveland should be able to move the ball consistently at home and cover the spread. There will be a lot of barking in the Dawg Pound on Sunday.

Pick: Browns -3

Miami Dolphins (+11) at Indianapolis Colts

This is one of those previously mentioned backdoor covers. Yes, the Dolphins lost two offensive starters for this week, but with pretty much everyone in Miami being bad, itâ€™s not that big of a step-down. The Dolphins have shown they can move the ball and put up points recently, averaging 20.3 points over the past three games. The Colts look to be without star receiver T.Y. Hilton yet again, and there is a chance Jacoby Brissett takes a week off and lets his knee heal, with this being a game the Colts should certainly win. And I think they do win, but they have shown this season that they wonâ€™t blow teams out of the water. Every one of their games has been decided by one score, with their victories being by an average of four points. An 11-point spread is a lot, especially against a Dolphins team that has covered the spread in their last four games.

Pick: Dolphins +11

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (Over 41.5 Points)

The struggling Bears are 2.5-point favorites at home, but we do not need to go there. Instead, letâ€™s take a look at both of these defenses that are under-performing. The Lions have given up at least 26 points in three straight games, getting lit up by Derek Carr and the Raiders last week. However, the Lions offense is still averaging 25.5 points per game and will find success moving the ball against Chicago here. The Bears defense is still good, but they are not as great as last seasonâ€™s squad. They are surrendering 18 points and almost 345 yards per game. Last seasonâ€™s matchup between these two teams in Chicago resulted in a 33-22 Bears win, which shows these two teams are actually capable of moving the ball against each other. Mitch Trubisky is getting a lot of criticism for his comments about needing to turn off TVs talking about him and the Bears, but this could also be seen as him focusing and looking at least slightly better this week against a bad defense.

Pick: Over 41.5 Points

Week 9 Results: 1-4
Season to Date: 22-21-2