Week 11 NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Nov 15, 2019

Following a week where there were a couple of big upsets, pretty much anything can happen in Week 11 and I would not be surprised. Well, thatâ€™s not true. I would be genuinely surprised if the Bengals got their first win of the season since they are firmly in the driverâ€™s seat for the first overall pick and they need a quarterback.

Anyway, we have some interesting games on the slate, with three games having double-digit spreads, three over/unders being set at 40 or lower, and three other point totals set at 50 or higher. To make sense of some of the spreads and over/unders for this Week 11 slate of NFL action, here are the five best NFL bets.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here >>

Special Offer: Bet $1 and win $100 if Tom Brady completes a pass against the Eagles >>

Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Detroit Lions

It looks like the Lions will be without Matthew Stafford again. They were lucky they played a bad Bears offense last week because they should have lost by much more than seven points. For the Cowboys, they are coming off a loss to the Vikings and know they need a win here to keep a lead in their division. Trubisky passed for three touchdowns last week and the Chicago running backs averaged 3.7 yards per carry on the ground, and the Cowboys are more talented at every position offensively. They should dominate this game throughout.

Pick: Cowboys -5

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)

The Falcons are coming off a huge upset, which is great, but they lost their starting running back and tight end in the process. The passing offense was pretty much the only thing Atlanta had going for them this season, and now without Mohamed Sanu, Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper, they are in a position to take a step back. Defensively, Atlanta struggles with the pass (allowing a 69.9% completion rate), which would be the weakest part of Carolinaâ€™s offense, since Christian McCaffrey is playing out of his mind at running back. Kyle Allen should be able to move the football through the air because of this porous defense, and he will remain perfect at home.

Pick: Panthers -4.5

New Orleans Saints (-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa drew the short straw and has the tall task of facing the Saints after a terrible performance. This is similar to last season when they played the Saints at home after they lost 13-10 the week prior. The result? A 28-14 New Orleans Saints victory. The secondary for Tampa has been atrocious, giving up 316.1 passing yards per game, 22 passing touchdowns and a nine-yard average depth per target. Drew Brees has averaged 343.3 passing yards in the three full games he has played. Following the first time ever Brees and Sean Payton were held under 10 points, expect a lot of fireworks in Tampa Bay, with the Saints covering the spread.

Pick: Saints -5

Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams

The way to beat the Rams is to get pressure. With two offensive line starters on IR and left tackle Rob Havenstein questionable with a knee injury, the Chicago Bears should be able to get plenty of pressure on Jared Goff. When Goff has been under pressure this season, he completes just 41.7% of his passes and has a 59.5 passer rating, which is down from 70.6% and 95.7 when he is not under pressure. With one of the lowest projected totals of the day, at 39.5 points, the Bears should be able to stay within a score and have the chance to outright win, if they have any kind of success moving the football.

Pick: Bears +6.5

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

There is a lot to like in this spot. First, we are talking about one of the greatest coaches of all time, coming off a tough loss, with an extra week to prepare for the Eagles. Since 2010, the Patriots are 14-4 straight up after a bye and 11-6-1 against the spread. Next, we have the â€œrevenge gameâ€ narrative, after the Eagles defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Finally, that Eagles secondary is not good, and Tom Brady is about to pick it apart. This line feels like an overreaction to the Patriots losing in embarrassing fashion to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, so letâ€™s take advantage of this.

Pick: Patriots -3.5

Week 10 Results: 1-3-1
Season to Date: 23-24-1