Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Nov 22, 2019

We are headed down the home stretch of the NFL regular season, which means that we will be witness to plenty of competitive games with outstanding individual performances. This is the time of year where we see many rematches of divisional games as well, which always make for some interesting, close games to bet on.

With so many good games on this slate to watch, it often can mean the opposite for betting. However, I have five of my favorite bets for the NFL weekend to bet on for Week 12, and Iâ€™ll be highlighting both bets against the spread and over/unders.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here >>

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Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Philadelphia Eagles

It feels like the wrong team is favored in this game. The Eagles are beat-up, with receiver Nelson Agholor and star offensive tackle Lane Johnson not practicing this week. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are well-rested, coming off their bye week. Surely, they used the bye week to install Josh Gordon into their offense, making their passing game that much more dangerous against an already weak Philly secondary. The Eagles simply do not have the offensive weapons fully healthy and available to keep up with a well-rested Russell Wilson this week. Wilson and the Seahawks are 5-1 after a bye through their last six seasons, and I am expecting them to win straight up, improving to 6-1 in their last seven.

Pick: Seahawks: +1

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-3)

This is expected to be a low-scoring affair that is not must-watch television. However, I think that we have some value here after the spread has come down to -3 for Buffalo. Denver is coming off of an emotional loss in which the team completely collapsed. This may take a lot of wind out of their sails, and they have to turn around and hit the road to Buffalo, who matches up very well against Denver. Top receiver Courtland Sutton faces an extremely tough matchup against Treâ€™Davious White, while rookie tight end Noah Fant faces Micah Hyde, who has been the reason why Buffalo is the top team against opposing tight ends. Without those two weapons to lean on, Denver essentially has their average running game and Tim Patrick, which is not a recipe for success. Buffalo is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games against Denver and 8-3-1 in their last 12 overall. They should emerge as the better team at home, but Iâ€™m not saying itâ€™ll be a pretty win.

Pick: Bills -3

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Over 41)

Jeff Driskel will still be under center for Detroit while Matthew Stafford is sidelined with a back injury. While itâ€™s a downgrade, it has not been a death sentence, with the Lions scoring 13 against Chicago and 27 against Dallas last week. Facing a Washington team that allows 25.3 points per game, this will be the easiest matchup for Driskel thus far. The Lions will put up points offensively, and they will surely give up plenty of points, surrendering 30.8 points in their last five games. Rookie Dwayne Haskins finally found some success last week, throwing his first two NFL touchdowns. Washington also got talented running back Derrius Guice back, which only improves their offense. Itâ€™s easy to set a low point total for two terrible teams, but the reality is that the defenses in this game are far worse than the offenses.

Pick: Over 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

These back-to-back wins have been incredibly impressive for Atlanta. They used their bye week to re-energize the defensive side of the ball, taking on the personality of their head coach, allowing 12 total points over the past two weeks. The four turnovers that they forced were the most impressive part of their blowout win last week, and now they face Jameis Winston, who is known for being careless with the ball. Heâ€™s managed to throw 18 interceptions already this season. If they continue to force turnovers and limit Tampaâ€™s offense at all, they should win this game behind Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company, as theyâ€™re facing a pass defense for Tampa that surrenders 290.9 passing yards per game, which is the second-most in the league.

Pick: Falcons -4

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

This game comes down to the quarterbacks. For the Ravens, there has been no sign that a team can fully contain Lamar Jackson. If the Rams decide to over-commit to the run, Jackson has proved that he is more than capable of checking it down to his running backs or tight ends if he doesnâ€™t find one of his speedy wide receivers deep. For the Rams, Jared Goff has really struggled this season, completing only 60.3 percent of his passes and having an 11/10 touchdown-interception ratio. He has also really struggled under pressure this season, completing only 41.9 percent of his passes under pressure, and he has been pressured on nearly one-third of his dropbacks due to the struggles from his offensive line. Unfortunately for him, he is likely to experience pressure from the Ravens, who have totaled 11 sacks over the past three weeks. You cannot make mistakes if you want to beat the Ravens, and I think that Goff will make some mistakes here.

Pick: Ravens -3

Week 11 Results: 3-2
Season to Date: 26-26-1