Week 13 NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Nov 28, 2019

Happy turkey week! Three Thanksgiving games on the slate messes with our regular NFL routine for this week, so make sure you get your bets in, your fantasy teams locked and the football on your television for Thanksgiving.

The three Thursday games also give me a reason to target some of these games for betting this week, with one you will read about below in particular. With so many great games to watch this week and six teams playing on a shortened week, this can create some abnormal results for betting. However, I have five of my favorite bets for NFL Week 13, and Iâ€™ll be highlighting both bets against the spread and over/unders.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here >>

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Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys (Under 47)

This is the second of the three Thanksgiving games this week. Both of these teams feature solid defenses, but both can be attacked on the ground this season. We remember the huge game Aaron Jones put up against the Cowboys earlier this season, and Buffalo has allowed 5.2 yards per carry to running backs over the past five games. Both teams are run-heavy, with the Bills and Cowboys attempting the sixth and eighth-most rushing attempts this season, respectively. Both teams will take that same approach on a shortened week, which keeps the clock moving and limiting drives. This is also the highest projected total for the Bills this season, and the over has only hit for them on three occasions, and two were against the Dolphins.

Pick: Under 47

New York Jets (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals

This is a narrow spread for a team that has won three straight games (both straight up and against the spread) facing a team that has lost them all. The Bengals are making the switch back to Andy Dalton this week, disrupting any kind of rhythm Ryan Finley may have been creating, though it was not much. The reason for the Jetsâ€™ recent success has been Sam Darnold, who has thrown for seven touchdowns to just one interception in these three wins. The Bengals defense has been atrocious, allowing 26.5 points, 260.4 passing yards, and a whopping 166.4 yards on the ground. The Jets would have a tough time not winning by at least two this week. Also, the Bengals would not want to win against a team that still has a chance at the top overall pick.

Pick: Jets -2

Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at New York Giants

The Giantsâ€™ defense has been terrible this season, giving up the fourth-most points in the league (28.0). Theyâ€™ve surrendered at least 27 points in six of their last seven games, with the only team failing to hit that mark being the struggling Chicago Bears last week. The Packers, who average 23.5 PPG, are coming off of a tough loss, so expect Aaron Rodgers to get on the board early and often against the worst-graded cornerback group in the league, according to ProFootballFocus. Facing a defense as bad as the Giantsâ€™, there is no question that the Packers will score. The relevant question is how many points will they allow to the Giants. The Giantsâ€™ offensive line has done a poor job at protecting rookie Daniel Jones, allowing 23 sacks over the past five games. With the Smiths for the Packers coming off the edge, I believe their impact on this game will be massive, and it will force Jones into mistakes and keep their score low enough for the Packers to win both straight up and against the spread.

Pick: Packers -6.5

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-9.5)

The Panthers come into this game desperate for a win after dropping four of their past five games. However, three of these four games have been on the road. Luckily, they have a great matchup this week against a mediocre, at best, Washington team. More specifically, Christian McCaffrey has a great matchup he can exploit and take over the game. Washington has allowed 4.96 yards per running back touch over the past five weeks. McCaffrey has averaged 5.91 yards per touch this season, and he very well could average more following this game. With Washington averaging a lowly 13.1 points per game this season, they will not be able to keep up with the offensive weapons of Carolina, who are playing very well right now.

Pick: Panthers -9.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) at Jacksonville Jaguars

We all know about the pass defense of Tampa Bay, which is terrible, but the run defense is actually quite strong. This neutralizes Leonard Fournette on the ground a bit. The surprise in this game is how bad the Jacksonville defense has been. They have allowed an average of 423.3 yards per game over their last three outings while giving up an average of 33.7 points over this span. Tampaâ€™s offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 28.4 points per game, thanks to their talented receiver duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Look for them to continue scoring at a high rate against this Jaguars defense while Nick Foles struggles to keep up. The over in this game is also a solid pick.

Pick: Buccaneers +1

Week 12 Results: 3-2
Season to Date: 29-28-1