Week 15 NFL Line Movements & Sharp Money
It's almost impossible to consume betting content without coming across the phrase "sharps." "Sharps" refer to professional bettors/betting syndicates that influence lines due to the amount of money they bet and their reputations of profiting long-term. While it's not uncommon for sharps to square off and take opposite sides, our goal here is to find games with seemingly unanimous sharp support.
Texans at Jets (+7)
Not much to report here, as the Texans opened -6.5 at most books and have since moved to -7 behind 71% of bets. Sharp bettors seem much more interested in the total, as it has fallen from 42.5 to 41.5 despite 62% of bettors taking the over.
Browns at Broncos (-2.5)
It would appear sharp money is backing the Browns here, considering the Broncos opened -4 but are only -2.5 now, despite receiving a small majority of bets (51%). Be careful chasing sharp action though, as this line has now crossed through key numbers. If you like the Browns this week, you might be better off playing the moneyline at this point.
Dolphins at Vikings (-7.5)
The Vikings opened as seven-point favorites and are now up to -7.5 behind 57% of bets. Not much to report on in terms of sharp action, but I imagine sharp money will come in on the Dolphins if this line becomes more inflated.
Raiders at Bengals (-3)
I can't imagine this game will receive much public attention, but sharps will bet on any game in which they have a perceived edge. This line opened Bengals -3.5 but was immediately bet down to Bengals -3. Ticket count is fairly even with 51% of bets currently on the Bengals, and I think we'll see this line stay right where it is.
Bucs at Ravens (-7.5)
The Ravens opened as high as 8.5-point favorites at some books but are now only -7.5, despite receiving 62% of bets. The public loves betting on teams that "need to win," and bookmakers likely inflated the line knowing this.
Cowboys at Colts (-2.5)
While we haven't seen much line movement throughout the week, I do think the line freeze here is telling. The majority of bettors are backing the Cowboys on the spread (54%) and the Moneyline (63%), and yet the books haven't budged. The Cowboys come in winners of five straight, but now is the time to sell high like you would in any other market. I personally love backing home, contrarian favorites and will likely be betting on the Colts myself. I do recommend checking the injury report first, as many big names are questionable for both sides.
Lions at Bills (-2)
Are the Bills becoming a public team? This game opened as a pick 'em, but the Bills are now two-point favorites thanks to 61% of bets and 78% of money wagered. It has been fun to watch Josh Allen, but I just don't see him scrambling all over the Lions' defense when the likes of Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and Mitch Trubisky were unable to.
Packers at Bears (-6)
Here is another game where the line hasn't moved much, but that might actually be telling us something. Despite 57% of bets coming in on the Bears, bookmakers have been hesitant to move this line. I imagine it's because 61% of money wagered is on Green Bay plus the points.
Titans at Giants (-2)
I was surprised to see the Titans receiving the majority of bets in this one (55%), but considering books have moved off the key number of Giants -3, they must respect some of the action coming in. This is another game that probably won't generate much betting action, however.
Washington at Jaguars (-7.5)
If this is the game you choose to watch on Sunday, may God have mercy on your soul. The Jaguars opened as 8.5-point favorites but are now only 7.5-point favorites, despite receiving 61% of bets. Public bettors want no part of the quarterback carousel in Washington, but I'm shocked anyone wants to lay 7.5-points with the Jags either.
Cardinals at Falcons (-10)
This line opened Falcons -9 and has since moved to Falcons -10, despite 56% of bettors backing the Cardinals. I've mentioned my thoughts on home, contrarian favorites before, and it looks like the Falcons fit the bill here. I definitely wouldn't feel great laying double-digits, however. Looks like a pass to me.
Seahawks at 49ers (+3.5)
Sharp bettors are all over the 49ers in this one, as the Seahawks opened as 5.5-point favorites but have fallen to -3.5, despite receiving 69% of bets. Public bettors see a team that needs to keep winning to make the playoffs and thinks, "no way they will lose," but sharp bettors have no problem taking the home, divisional underdog.
Patriots at Steelers (+2.5)
The Patriots opened -1, but both public & sharp bettors seem to have pounced on them. The Patriots are currently receiving 77% of bets, causing the line to tick up to -2.5. I do expect there to be buy-back on the Steelers if +3 becomes available, however.
Eagles at Rams (-11.5)
After opening as nine-point favorites, the Rams have been bet up to -11.5 behind 66% of money. Sharp bettors seem more interested in the total, as the line dropped from 54 to 52, despite 52% of bettors taking the over. This shows larger bets must be on the under, and we can confirm that by checking the percentage of money wagered. It turns out that the 52% of bets on the over only make up 17% of money wagered, confirming sharp action on the under.
Saints at Panthers (+6.5)
The Panthers come into this one losers of five straight, while the Saints trailed the Bucs 14-3 halfway through the 3rd quarter last week before storming back and somehow covering the spread as nine-point favorites. 61% of bettors are currently trying to recreate that magic, but sharp bettors see a Saints team playing their 3rd straight road game and second straight divisional game. This looks like a great opportunity to fade the public, as the Panthers opened +7 but have been bet down to +6/+6.5 behind only 38% of tickets.
Alex Sims is a correspondent at BettingPros. For more from Alex, check out his archive and follow him @FreeMoneyAlert.