Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Dec 13, 2019

We are coming down the home stretch of the NFL regular season, which creates chaos from a betting perspective. Some teams are in must-win weeks while other teams are auditioning new people in the head coach role each game (looking at you, Carolina). We also have a bunch of injuries to sort through, so weâ€™ll have to figure out who is active, who will start, and who some of these players in significant roles even are.

After discussing the lines with many people this week, there is a heavy opinion that this weekâ€™s lines are pretty ugly as they stand right now. However, I sorted through them and found five spots where I think there is some value. Here are five of my favorite bets of Week 15.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here >>

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions

Yes, Tampa lost Mike Evans this week, which is a big loss. However, the Lions also lost one of their top receivers in Marvin Jones. Looking at the remaining receiving corps for each team, I would still lean in favor of the Bucs. This is especially true when considering defense. Teams can easily attack Detroit in the slot, and Chris Godwin is one of the leagueâ€™s top slot receivers. The passing game swings their way even more when considering the quarterback play of both teams. David Blough is simply not good enough to keep up with Jameis Winston in this game. The Lions have thrown for less than 200 yards in three of their last four games, and they have committed seven turnovers in their past three games. Detroit will be unable to set up anything with the running game, with Tampa being the second-best against the run this season, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. With no consistent production likely to come from the Detroit offense in this one, expect the Buccaneers to cover the spread for the fourth game in a row.

Pick: Buccaneers -3.5

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have lost to some bad teams recently, including the Falcons (twice) and the Redskins. With Carolinaâ€™s defense not showing up, it has been much easier for defenses to key on slowing down Christian McCaffrey when the Panthers are playing from behind. This has put more pressure on Kyle Allen, who has been sacked 24 times over the past five games. Seattle should be able to bring this kind of pressure again on Sunday and force Allen into mistakes. The Panthers have no chance at winning if they make mistakes since Seattle will likely run a lot and play a clean game. Carolina is surrendering a league-high 5.3 yards per rush. This is a simple case where one teamâ€™s strength is the otherâ€™s weakness, which should result in a fast start for the Seahawks, where they donâ€™t look back.

Pick: Seahawks -6.5

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants (Over 46.5)

This is a battle between two quarterbacks playing with something to prove against two horrendous defenses. The Giants surrender 261.8 passing yards (seventh-worst) and a 101.3 passer rating per game (fifth-worst). Their poor secondary is expected to get even worse, with Janoris Jenkins likely not active for this game. On the other side, Miami surrenders a league-high 30.7 points per game and have only been competitive because of Fitzpatrick. DeVante Parker is questionable, and I would feel even more comfortable with this bet if he is active, but Fitzpatrick has shown that he can lift up the players around him. For the Giants, this could be Eli Manningâ€™s final start in MetLife Stadium, and from the way he is talking, it sounds like he wants to play for another team next season. In other words, this is the perfect audition spot for him against a terrible defense, and the Giants have too many weapons for the Dolphins to match up with (Barkley, Shepard, Slayton, and Tate). Expect these quarterbacks to turn back the clock, or at least let their players do a lot of work after the catch and score a lot of points.

Pick: Over 46.5

New England Patriots (-9.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Obviously, the Patriots are going to smash the Bengals due to the footage they got. Iâ€™m kidding. The Patriots got nothing except a larger chip on their shoulder, which is not something they need at this point in the season. This was already a get-right game against a terrible defense that allows the second-most yards in the league (399.5). The Patriots defense should continue to be reliable against Andy Dalton and this Cincinnati offense, so it comes down to what this Tom Brady-led offense can do. Since 2010, the Patriots cover the spread 66.7 percent of the time following a loss, and I expect that trend to continue here as they try to send a message to the rest of the league.

Pick: Patriots -9.5

Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals

The Browns continue pounding the rock and forcing turnovers. Thatâ€™s a great recipe for success, and it will prove successful again this week against the Cardinals. Arizona just lacks the explosiveness to make big plays and get back into games. The Cardinals have also been unable to stop running backs over the past five games, allowing 129.6 total yards to the position over this span, which is something Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should fully take advantage of. Before last weekâ€™s Steelers game, the Cardinals had allowed 411 or more total yards to each of their previous five opponents, and they have been held under 277 offensive yards in each of the past three. As long as the Browns stay true to the run and protect the football, they should have no problem covering the spread.

Pick: Browns -3

Week 14 Results: 4-1
Season to Date: 36-31-3