Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread and Over/Under

by Zach Brunner |
Dec 20, 2019

There are only two weeks left of the NFL regular season, which is both sad and exciting. On the one hand, the football season is nearing its end. On the other, playoff football is just around the corner. With the end of the season being here, there is a unique dynamic where some teams are facing must-win weeks, some may prefer to lose, and others want to spoil the party for their divisional rivals. With this mix of situations, betting can become more complicated, as can the game lines.

It is also important to note that there are three games on Saturday, so make sure to get your bets placed, beer fridge stocked, and cancel all other plans. I sorted through this exciting Week 16 slate and found five spots where I think there is some value for us to play with. Here are five of my favorite bets for Week 16.

See the consensus lines and odds for all games here >>

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Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

With a 5-1 record at home before last weekâ€™s collapse because of their injured defense, I believe the 49ers are going to win this game. They have the players to bring the heat on Jared Goff early, which will force him into incompletions and mistakes. Goff is only completing 42.4 percent of passes when rushed this season. Defensively, the Rams absolutely collapsed last week, giving up 44 points and 263 rushing yards on the road. On the road again, they face a tough 49ers backfield that has three players with varying skill sets to worry about. They are in for a good day in what is shaping up to be another low-scoring game between these two divisional rivals, where the 49ers cover the spread at home.

Pick: 49ers -6.5

Houston Texans (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers host the Texans this week, but the team has lost 54.2 percent of their receiving production (47 percent target share) over the past two weeks with the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With them being such a pass-heavy team, that hurts Tampa a lot. On the other side of the ball, Tampa cannot defend the pass at all, allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. This is bad news with Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins coming to town. Houston needs to keep winning to secure home-field advantage in the playoffs, so look for them to come out hot, passing all over Tampa and covering the spread.

Pick: Texans -3

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The winner takes the division in this NFC East battle. This spread is surprisingly close; I was expecting the Cowboys to be favored by almost five points. I wonâ€™t ask questions, though, Iâ€™ll capitalize on it instead. We know what this Eagles team is. They are decimated at the wide receiver position with Greg Ward Jr. being their top wideout for this week. Defensively, they cannot stop the pass, which is why they nearly lost to Washington and the Giants in the past two weeks, after losing to Miami before that. On the other side, Dallas destroys teams that are not very good, while they struggle with the tougher matchups. This game is not a tough matchup. Sure, Ezekiel Elliott may not run as well as he did last week â€” the Eagles have allowed only 4.17 yards per carry to running backs over the past five weeks. However, they have allowed an average of 249 passing yards to some bad offenses over their past five weeks (WAS, NYG, MIA, SEA, NE).

The first matchup was a 37-10 win for the Cowboys in Dallas. While I expect this one to be a bit closer since itâ€™s outside in Philly, the Cowboys should win by more than one score.

Pick: Cowboys -1.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (Over 46.5)

These defenses are horrendous, allowing a combined 119 points over the past two weeks. They both allow over 400 yards per game on the season. The Bengals defense is bad all over, but itâ€™s their run defense that is their biggest weakness, allowing 4.9 yards per rush (T-fourth-worst in NFL). The Dolphins defense is horrendous all over, allowing a league-worst 31.1 points per game, including 33.4 over the past five games, which includes just one team that currently has a winning record. While the defenses are awful, the offenses are capable of putting up points due to talented playmakers like Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. The over has hit in four of the last five games for the Dolphins. The Bengals have hit the over in back-to-back games, which are games where Mixon has been able to find success running the ball, totaling 282 rushing yards in these games. He should be able to find success in this matchup, as should both offensive groups, with little defense getting played.

Pick: Over 46.5

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (Over 47)

Defensively, the Panthers have been unable to stop the run, allowing running backs to average 5.72 yards per carry over the past five games. Obviously, the Colts want to be a run-first team behind their big offensive line. The Panthers are putting rookie quarterback Will Grier out there to make his first start, and with the beat-up secondary for the Colts, this is a good matchup for them, too. The Colts have allowed an average of 311.4 passing yards over the past five weeks. Now knowing how bad these defenses have been recently, this has led to an incredible average of 59.6 combined points allowed by these two teams over the past five games. The over has hit for the Colts in three of their past five games. The Panthers have had their totals his the over in eight of their last 10 games, and there is a good chance the pattern continues here.

Pick: Over 47

Week 15 Results: 3-2
Season to Date: 39-33-3