Week 16 Player Prop Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Fitz’s Favorites (2024)

We’re endorsing one MVP candidate and fading another this week. We’re also betting against inexperienced quarterbacks.

But before we get to this week’s selections, a recap of Week 15...

The wins: Russell Wilson under 199.5 passing yards, Tyrone Tracy under 45.5 rushing yards, De'Von Achane under 48.5 rushing yards, Ja'Marr Chase over 87.5 receiving yards, Tucker Kraft over 33.5 receiving yards, T.J. Hockenson over 38.5 receiving yards

The losses: Jameis Winston over 239.5 passing yards, Derrick Henry over 102.5 rushing yards, D'Andre Swift under 52.5 rushing yards, Tyrone Tracy over 18.5 receiving yards, Khalil Shakir over 53.5 receiving yards

Last week: 6-5

Season record: 77-77

NFL Week 16 Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday, Dec. 19.

Lamar Jackson UNDER 222.5 passing yards

As good as Jackson has been throughout his career, the division-rival Steelers seem to have his number. In seven career games against Pittsburgh, Jackson has averaged 153.9 passing yards per game and 6.5 yards per attempt.

Pittsburgh's stingy pass defense ranks fifth in opponent passer rating and eighth in DVOA. When Jackson faced the Steelers in Week 11, he completed 16-of-33 passes for 207 yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Michael Penix Jr. UNDER 225.5 passing yards

I'm a big fan of Penix, the eighth overall pick in this year's draft, and believe the Falcons are making the right move by benching the slumping Kirk Cousins for the talented rookie.

But quarterbacks often struggle in their first NFL starts — even the great ones.

Tom Brady threw for 168 yards and no touchdowns in his first NFL start. When Aaron Rodgers finally made his first NFL start after a multiyear apprenticeship behind Brett Favre, Rodgers threw for 178 yards and one touchdown. Josh Allen threw for 245 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in his NFL debut. Joe Burrow had 193 yards passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception. You get the idea.

Expect the Falcons to go with a run-heavy approach to make things easier on their prized rookie. Penix will be hard-pressed to top this yardage total.

Josh Allen OVER 235.5 passing yards

You better believe I checked the weather forecast for Buffalo before making this bet. It will be chilly for Sunday's Patriots-Bills game: a high temperature of 17 degrees. But winds will be light, and there's no snow in the forecast.

Allen has cleared this number in six of his last eight games, averaging 279.4 passing yards a game over that stretch. He attempted at least 33 passes in seven of those eight games.

The leading candidate for league MVP should pick his teeth with a New England pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA, 28th in opponent passer rating, and is allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt.

James Conner OVER 85.5 rushing yards

I never get sick of betting on rushing overs against the Carolina defense.

The Panthers rank dead last in DVOA against the run. Carolina has given up 1,981 rushing yards to RBs this season — 363 more than the next most generous run defense. Running backs are averaging 5.0 yards per carry against the Panthers.

Conner has rolled up 200 rushing yards over his last two games, gouging Seattle for 90 yards in Week 14 and steamrolling New England for 110 yards in Week 15. Conner has averaged 17 carries over his last three games, and he's likely to have a heavy workload again this week with backup RBs Trey Benson and Emari Demercado both injured.

De'Von Achane UNDER 50.5 rushing yards

The Miami running game is completely broken. As a team, the Dolphins have totaled 82 or fewer rushing yards in six consecutive games, averaging 58.2 rushing yards a game over that stretch.

Achane is a terrific player, but he's been doing more damage as a pass catcher than as a runner lately. He's fallen short of this number in four straight games and in five of his last six. He's averaged 2.6 yards per carry over his last four games.

Blame Miami's problematic offensive line, which ranks 29th in the run-blocking metric adjusted line yards. The Dolphins have been playing without left tackle Terron Armstead, who has a knee injury and hadn't practiced this week as of Thursday.

Bet against Miami's anemic run game.

Bucky Irving OVER 61.5 rushing yards

This one seems too easy. Irving has topped this number in four of his last five games. The one miss during that stretch was in Week 14, when he was forced to leave a game against the Raiders with a back injury after just four carries. He returned last week and had 117 rushing yards against the Chargers.

Irving is a ruthlessly efficient runner. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, and he's averaged 6.4 yards per carry since the Buccaneers came out of their Week 11 bye.

Irving will face a mediocre Dallas run defense that ranks 28th in DVOA and has allowed 4.4 yards per carry to RBs this season. Take the over.

Travis Kelce UNDER 53.5 receiving yards

Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Kelce has fallen short of this number in each of his last two games, with five catches for 45 yards against the Chargers in Week 14 and four catches for 27 yards against the Browns in Week 15.

The 35-year-old Kelce has averaged 12.1 yards per catch and 8.7 yards per target over his illustrious career. This year, he's averaging 8.4 yards per catch and 6.2 yards per target.

Kelce has a rough matchup this week against a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest receptions and fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends. The Texans are giving up 38.4 receiving yards per game to TEs.

The Chiefs could be more run-heavy than usual with QB Patrick Mahomes playing on a high-ankle sprain. And the Chiefs are adding another pass catcher to the mix, with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown expected to return from a shoulder injury that has kept him out all season.

It’s a bad combination of factors for Kelce.

Jaylen Warren OVER 20.5 receiving yards

With star WR George Pickens set to miss another game with a hamstring injury, Pittsburgh has a dire shortage of pass-catching weaponry. Expect Steelers QB Russell Wilson to get his running backs involved in the passing game Sunday against the Ravens.

Baltimore is tough against the run, having allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to RBs. But the Ravens really give it up to running backs in the passing game. They've allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs.

Warren has cleared this number in four of his last six games, averaging 26.3 receiving yards a game over that stretch. In Week 11, Warren had four catches for 27 yards against the Ravens.

D'Andre Swift OVER 12.5 receiving yards

The Bears haven't been using Swift much as a pass catcher lately, but it would behoove them to use Swift in the passing game. The injury-riddled Detroit defense had all sorts of problems covering Buffalo's running backs last week, giving up eight receptions and 156 receiving yards to the Bills' RBs. On Thanksgiving Day, Swift had two catches for 35 yards against the Lions.

Swift has 35 receptions for 325 yards this season. He's an accomplished pass catcher who had a 78-catch season and a 70-catch season earlier in his career.

And, oh, by the way, this is a revenge game for Swift, who spent the first three years of his NFL career with the Lions before being traded away.

Jerry Jeudy UNDER 60.5 receiving yards

Jeudy has been terrific this season, with 70 catches for 1,052 yards. He really came alive when backup QB Jameis Winston replaced the injured Deshaun Watson.

But now the Browns are replacing the interception-prone Winston with second-year QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. It would be an understatement to say that Thompson-Robinson hasn't shown much as a passer thus far in his NFL career.

In three starts last season, Thompson-Robinson averaged 140 passing yards, with no more than 165 yards in any of those games. Thompson-Robinson has 146 career pass attempts and has averaged a paltry 3.7 yards per attempt.

Given the Browns' QB situation, Jeudy is going to have an awfully hard time hitting this number.