Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Spread & Over/Under

Week 9 features four teams on bye, an early game in London, and three divisional matchups. There are also a couple of matchups that feel like must-win games for teams that want to stay relevant in the playoff race just halfway through the football season. Needless to say, it should make for an interesting week of football that already has a few strange spreads that will make you look twice.

To make sense of some of these interesting spreads for this Week 9 slate of NFL action, here are the five best NFL bets.

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Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
I get that the firing of the Chargers’ offensive coordinator will likely bring a new energy around this offense, but the Packers are by far the better team in this game. Green Bay fans will also be, at the very least, two-thirds of the stadium, with a big Packer fan population in California and Aaron Rodgers growing up and playing college ball in the state. In other words, there is little to no home-field advantage.

The Packers also have a great chance to get Davante Adams back this week, giving Rodgers his favorite weapon back after the team has already been averaging 32.5 points over this four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Chargers have allowed a league-worst 73 percent catch rate this season. Offensively, the Chargers have struggled, scoring just 18 points per game during the last three weeks, which is why they made a coaching change. Given the injuries to their offensive line, it will be tough for them to move the ball consistently on Sunday, while the Packers should continue to have offensive success.
Pick: Packers (-3.5)

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is one of those interesting spreads that makes very little sense. The Steelers were dominated by Miami early last week before the Dolphins essentially rolled over so the Steelers would get back in the game. On a short week, they have the talented, underrated Colts team coming to town. The weakest part of this Colts team is their run defense, which has given up 4.8 yards per rush (T-fifth worst in NFL). Luckily for them, the Steelers look to be shorthanded at running back, with James Conner and Benny Snell both sidelined at practice. They also have lineman Ramon Foster in concussion protocol. All the Colts have to do is win, and with their offense being the best overall unit in the game, with their strong offensive line and talented pass catchers, they will be able to do that. Lock it in before this line moves.
Pick: Colts (-1)

New York Jets (-3) at Miami Dolphins
I promise, no matter how good Miami may start this game, they will find a way to lose. Whether it’s calling zero coverage on third and very long or playing with nine guys on the field, they will do what they have to do. The Dolphins also put their best cornerback, Xavien Howard, on IR, which gives Sam Darnold a terrific matchup to build his confidence. Le’Veon Bell should also turn in his best game of the season, with the Dolphins giving up 4.8 yards per carry (T-No. 5 in NFL). If you need more of a reason to side with the Jets, this is the Adam Gase revenge game, and he has likely had this one circled on the schedule since the start of the season. Want ANOTHER reason? There is no way the Dolphins would win this game against a bad Jets team and risk losing the top-overall pick.
Pick: Jets (-3)

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (Over 42)
The over has hit in three of Chicago’s last five games and four of Philadelphia’s last six games. With DeSean Jackson making his return for Philadelphia this week, this forces the Chicago defense to back up and respect the long ball, opening up underneath routes. Also, Chicago has been exposed in the running game against good offensive lines recently, with the Raiders running for 169 yards and the Saints running for 151 yards. Philadelphia is another line that can do the same. For the Bears, they should be able to attack this terrible Eagles’ secondary, no matter how bad Mitch Trubisky is. To be fair to him, he and his offense got the ball in the red zone five times last week. They just were not able to score touchdowns and lost because of some missed kicks. There should be plenty of ball movement in this game, and they should hit this over relatively easily, with both teams averaging 43.6 offensive points together this season, despite most of us labeling most of their offensive performances as poor so far.
Pick: Over 42

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at New York Giants
The first matchup between these two teams resulted in an 18-point Cowboys’ win. With Dallas coming off their bye week, they are solid favorites yet again. The bye week came at a perfect time, as it allowed their offensive line and receiver Amari Cooper to get healthy, making this offense a dangerous unit. The Giants surrender 405.9 yards per game and their secondary is one of the worst in the league. Dak Prescott passed for over 400 yards in the first game, and with this offensive line healthy and giving him solid protection, he has a shot to do it again. The Giants’ offense has been up and down, but Dallas has had an extra week to prepare for this must-win divisional game on Monday Night Football. This is one of those spots where the spread should be double digits, so let’s just take advantage of this as the Giants lose against the spread at home for the third time in a row.
Pick: Cowboys (-7)

Week 8 Results: 2-3
Season to Date: 21-17-2

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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.