What We Learned from NFL Week 10 (Sports Betting)
Week 10 of the NFL season is one where most people’s suicide pools came to an end. With the Miami Dolphins upsetting the Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons stunning the New Orleans Saints, it was definitely a week of surprises. Let’s take a look back at what we learned from this week’s action.
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Lions Season Is Teetering
I was a heavy critic of Matt Patricia in his first season as the Detroit Lions’ head coach, but I was pleasantly surprised with how the Lions started Year 2. In truth, their season should have gone very differently, and now I’m wondering just how much longer they’ll be able to hang on.
The Lions should have easily started 1-0 but fell asleep in the fourth quarter and ended up in a tie. They won their next two games and again struggled late against Kansas City and Green Bay and ended up 2-2-1 instead of 5-0 or 4-1. Realistically, if the referees didn’t screw them against Green Bay, they could have been 4-1.
Since then, the mental beatdown and injuries have taken their toll, and I’m worried this team is going to start coming apart. Their only win in their last six games is over the New York Giants. Now it looks like Matt Stafford is seriously banged up.
While the schedule isn’t too bad, I’m going to be fading this team regularly as it looks like they’re coming in for a crash landing. Stafford has an injury that needs time to heel, and he’s not going to get it until the offseason. And with the team at 3-5-1, they might just shut him down. If so, this team is going to lose a lot of games the rest of the way.
Cowboys Are A Mess
On one hand, losing at home to the Minnesota Vikings isn’t the worst thing. The Cowboys were competitive, for the most part, and only ended up losing by four.
At the same time, it’s just more of the same that we’ve seen in the Jason Garrett era. Every time the Cowboys are tested as a team that’s expected to take that next step, they get turned back.
For Dallas, it started early as they dug themselves a 14-0 hole in the first quarter. For a team that wants to be a Super Bowl contender, this is just unacceptable – especially at home. You might recall they had a really shaky start against the New York Giants last week, too.
Dallas is just frequently unprepared and struggles to execute in key moments. Sometimes it’s the offense, and sometimes it’s the defense. At the end of the day, it’s always something.
This is a team that’s now dropped four of their last six games and has contests coming up against Detroit, New England, Buffalo, Chicago, the Los Angeles Rams, and Philadelphia. Contrary to most people, I don’t think this schedule is so daunting, but the Cowboys are just about an 8-8 team. They’ll win some of these and look good at times, and they’ll lose others that will leave you scratching your head.
They have some nice pieces, but they’re just a middle-of-the-pack team in the NFC. Bet them accordingly.
Chiefs Have No Offensive Balance
Make no bones about it, there are a lot of great things that Andy Reid does as a head coach. He helps offenses overachieve, grooms quarterbacks very well, and his teams generally win at least 10 games per season. At the same time, one of his biggest flaws is rearing its ugly head, and the Chiefs simply aren’t going to be a contender unless this changes.
We saw this in Philadelphia when Reid had Donovan McNabb, but, in short, the Chiefs are simply far too reliant on the passing game. Yes, it’s a prolific part of their game, but they really don’t do anything else that well. Their defense can’t get stops, and their running game is non-existent. The Chiefs don’t really have any threat of a running game these days and defenses know that. As a result, they’re easier to stop.
On Sunday, the Chiefs couldn’t run out the clock with 1:48 remaining as they called two runs for eight yards, and then Mahomes was sacked on third down. On their previous fourth-quarter drive, they moved the ball from their own 26 to the Titans’ 21, but they only took about three minutes off the clock. With a good ground game, this team would have milked the clock and put the game away. But you can see the Chiefs’ priorities as they passed 50 times and ran just 25 in a game they were mostly leading.
On the season, the Chiefs are second in pass attempts but look who is around them. The Giants (2-8) have the most attempts, the Falcons (2-7) are third, and the Bengals (0-9) are fourth. That’s the company they’re keeping. In terms of rushing yards, the Chiefs average 90.8 per game. The only teams worse are the Chargers, Steelers, Bears, Falcons, Bengals, Jets and Dolphins. Again, take a look at the company they are keeping.
Unless this team finds more balance, they’re not going to go far in the playoffs.
Rams Are Finished
Although we’re merely in Week 11, the Los Angeles Rams are done. You can stick a fork in them.
At the end of the day, this team just isn’t very good. The offensive line has deteriorated quite a bit, and whether you want to put the blame on them or not, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have struggled. Goff is barely a replacement-level quarterback these days as he has just 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the season. His QBR is 39.4, which is 28th among quarterbacks. As for Gurley, he’s become a huge albatross for the team. It’s shocking to think he only has 509 total yards and just seven touchdowns this season. He had 1,831 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns through just 14 games last season.
The Rams’ offense scored 37 against the lowly Atlanta Falcons and 40 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but they’re averaging just 21.3 points per game otherwise. They mustered just 12 on Sunday in Pittsburgh, and that was off a bye week.
Going forward, you have to fade this team and also consider unders. They’re just not doing much on offense, and that’s not going to change.
Josh Allen Is Still The Same
There’s no question that Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has made progress from Year 1 to Year 2. At the same time, he’s still the guy I saw at Wyoming and the guy from the NFL Combine. He’ll make some really dazzling plays, and then you’ll also wonder if you can actually win with this guy.
Sunday’s loss at Cleveland wasn’t Allen’s fault, but he had a hand in it. He missed a lot of easy throws – especially in the second half. On a 3rd & 4 at the Cleveland 35, just needing to inch closer for a field goal, Allen didn’t even look at a wide-open target at the sticks and instead took a shot downfield with John Brown, which he missed. The Bills then missed their game-tying field goal.
In almost the same setting a few drives earlier, Allen missed an open Brown – throwing the ball behind him – and the Bills turned it over on downs.
He’ll make throws that really impress you, or he’ll survive plays using his feet that make your jaw drop, and then he’ll miss a really basic read. He still has room to grow, but it’s starting to feel like the Bills will be able to beat bad teams with him but games against good teams – or even OK teams on the road – will be toss-ups.
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Dave Golokhov is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Dave, check out his archive and follow him @davegolokhov.